Do I ship it?

GamesEconomyEconomy + Artificial Intelligence

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an AI Economy game?

Economy + Artificial Intelligence

Of 55 developers who shipped an AI Economy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 92 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $12k, ×19 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $5.5M, ×8794 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 92 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 19.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 92 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Economy + Artificial Intelligence
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 55
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $30k → $76k → $6.1k → $237k → $190k → $2.7k (still earning) → $8.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Economy + Artificial Intelligence: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 55
Bottom 30% $2.6k (exactly $2,633)
Median $12k (exactly $12,171)
Top 25% $161k (exactly $161,442)
Top 5% $5.5M (exactly $5,522,637)
Developers, 2 yr 55
Released games 111
Announced 92
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 200% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Economy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Artificial Intelligence
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Economy; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Management, Resource Management
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 52,625 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.7k, median $12k, 1 in 4 over $160k, 1 in 20 over $5.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.7k. 5 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 92 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Economy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair116 devs · median $22k · 125 announced
  2. + Football (Soccer)Fair21 devs · median $6.8k · 29 announced
  3. + ScienceFair39 devs · median $5.9k · 39 announced
  4. + MiningFair116 devs · median $5.0k · 173 announced
  5. + LootFair74 devs · median $4.6k · 114 announced
  6. + CollectathonFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  7. + God GameFair47 devs · median $2.8k · 58 announced
  8. + Auto BattlerFair59 devs · median $2.4k · 79 announced
  9. + IdlerFair441 devs · median $2.3k · 589 announced
  10. + IncrementalFair408 devs · median $2.2k · 612 announced
  11. + ArcadeFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  12. + Strategy RPGFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced

All 161 pairs on the Economy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Anno 117: Pax Romana $59.99 12,150 69% 365k $22M (exactly $21,866,355) Ubisoft Mainz
Jurassic World Evolution 3 $59.99 11,387 93% 342k $20M (exactly $20,493,184) Frontier Developments
ReStory: Chill Electronics Repairs $19.99 9,209 95% 276k $5.5M (exactly $5,522,637) Mandragora
Democracy 4 older $29.99 5,891 81% 177k $5.3M (exactly $5,300,133) Positech Games
Prehistoric Kingdom · EA older $29.99 5,640 90% 169k $5.1M (exactly $5,074,308) Blue Meridian
SpaceBourne 2 $19.99 4,951 75% 149k $3.0M (exactly $2,969,115) Burak Dabak
The Farmer Was Replaced $9.99 9,116 95% 273k $2.7M (exactly $2,732,065) Timon Herzog
Screeps: World older $19.99 1,934 86% 58k $1.2M (exactly $1,159,820) Screeps, LLC
Power & Revolution 2020 Edition older $49.99 769 63% 23k $1.2M (exactly $1,153,269) Eversim
SuperPower 3 older $29.99 982 10% 29k $884k (exactly $883,505) GolemLabs
Celestial Empire · EA $19.99 709 89% 21k $425k (exactly $425,187) President Studio
Sunset Motel $18.99 728 77% 22k $415k (exactly $414,742) Efkey Studios
Click and Conquer $4.99 2,442 92% 73k $366k (exactly $365,567) SOCKHOUSE STUDIOS
FACEMINER $7.99 1,517 90% 46k $364k (exactly $363,625) Wristwork
Settlements Rising $18.99 416 80% 12k $237k (exactly $236,995) The Catalyst Crew

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.