Do I ship it?

GamesDestructionDestruction + Artificial Intelligence

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an AI Destruction game?

Destruction + Artificial Intelligence

Only 11 developers shipped an AI Destruction game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Battlefield™ 6, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300, ×0.5 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300. 25 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper, while revenue is up 975% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 975% on the market, 25 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Destruction + Artificial Intelligence
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $0 → $359 → $300
Outcomes for Destruction + Artificial Intelligence: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $300 (exactly $300)
Top 25% $3.6k (exactly $3,596)
Top 5% $620M (exactly $620,339,567)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 51
Announced 25
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 975% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Destruction
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Artificial Intelligence
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Destruction
Price point
$8.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 63% positive over 295,510 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $300, 1 in 4 over $3.5k, 1 in 20 over $620M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. All of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 25 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Destruction with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Space SimFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 22 announced
  2. + ModernFair26 devs · median $1.6k · 28 announced
  3. + God GameFair19 devs · median $899 · 20 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair9 devs · median $719 · 14 announced
  5. + Hack and SlashPoor odds19 devs · median $43k · 57 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds15 devs · median $26k · 22 announced
  7. + CapitalismPoor odds17 devs · median $15k · 46 announced
  8. + Online Co-OpPoor odds37 devs · median $13k · 102 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds50 devs · median $11k · 113 announced
  10. + Automobile SimPoor odds22 devs · median $9.0k · 44 announced
  11. + ManagementPoor odds36 devs · median $6.1k · 129 announced
  12. + AutomationPoor odds22 devs · median $6.0k · 46 announced

All 139 pairs on the Destruction page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Battlefield™ 6 $69.99 295,442 63% 8.9M $620M (exactly $620,339,567) Battlefield Studios
WorldBox - God Simulator · EA older $19.99 51,071 95% 1.5M $31M (exactly $30,627,279) Maxim Karpenko
Terminator: Dark Fate - Defiance older $39.99 3,395 82% 102k $4.1M (exactly $4,072,982) Slitherine Ltd.
Kill It With Fire older $12.99 4,036 95% 121k $1.6M (exactly $1,572,829) Casey Donnellan Games LLC
Warbox · EA older $9.99 3,430 55% 103k $1.0M (exactly $1,027,971) Mantaliss
Ruinarch older $24.99 1,336 62% 40k $1.0M (exactly $1,001,599) Maccima Games LLC
ICBM older $19.99 1,655 91% 50k $993k (exactly $992,503) SoftWarWare, K-Project
Wayward Terran Frontier: Zero Falls · EA older $29.99 487 66% 15k $438k (exactly $438,154) Reason Generator Inc.
Vengeful Guardian: Moonrider older $16.99 489 85% 15k $249k (exactly $249,243) JoyMasher
ACTION SANDBOX older $9.99 787 73% 24k $236k (exactly $235,864) Vona Soft
Big Mutha Truckers $8.99 39 92% 1.2k $11k (exactly $10,518) Eutechnyx
LichXCoven $7.99 15 80% 450 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) Taste Studios
Samsara $9.99 6 50% 180 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) Narriflux
Attack on Steel $3.99 3 0% 90 $359 (exactly $359) Filet Studio
War to the Core · EA $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Forgotten Mines
Glory Defence $9.99 1 0% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Waytrel Studio
Grand Throw Auto $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Andrew Grbac
Jötunn's Greed · EA $7.99 1 100% 30 $240 (exactly $240) Fried Squid Games LLC
Cacotopia $3.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) StudyFun

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.