Do I ship it?

GamesArcadeArcade + Underground

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Underground Arcade game?

Arcade + Underground

Of 63 developers who shipped an Underground Arcade game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 67 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360 in the last 2 years and $480 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 4 / 10 build. 37 developers shipped in the last year and 67 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 67 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arcade + Underground
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 63
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.2k → $599 → $1.1k → $479 → $802 → $899 → $179 (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arcade + Underground: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 63
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $360 (exactly $360)
Top 25% $2.2k (exactly $2,246)
Top 5% $9.6k (exactly $9,581)
Developers, 2 yr 63
Released games 169
Announced 67
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Underground
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Arcade; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Mining, Roguelike
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Stylized, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 1,526 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $360, 1 in 4 over $2.2k, 1 in 20 over $9.5k.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. Nearly all of the 29 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 67 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arcade with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair59 devs · median $4.3k · 88 announced
  2. + TrainsFair20 devs · median $3.1k · 16 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair101 devs · median $2.6k · 84 announced
  4. + MiningFair91 devs · median $2.2k · 125 announced
  5. + FaithFair16 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  6. + Turn-BasedFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  7. + EconomyFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair72 devs · median $2.1k · 61 announced
  9. + DeckbuildingFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair68 devs · median $1.9k · 75 announced
  11. + LootFair147 devs · median $1.9k · 215 announced
  12. + VampiresFair34 devs · median $1.9k · 35 announced

All 270 pairs on the Arcade page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
You Know The Drill $4.99 1,022 92% 31k $153k (exactly $152,993) ludokai
Bloody Knuckles Street Boxing · EA older $14.99 210 52% 6.3k $94k (exactly $94,437) Luvseatshawty
Hot Lap League: Deluxe Edition older $14.99 169 78% 5.1k $76k (exactly $75,999) Ultimate Studio
Egyptian Senet older $9.99 200 81% 6.0k $60k (exactly $59,940) Ezzat Studios
Golazo! 2 older $14.99 109 77% 3.3k $49k (exactly $49,017) Purple Tree S R L
Footgun: Underground older $14.99 102 85% 3.1k $46k (exactly $45,869) Turtle Knight Games
Train Plus Japan Drive Western Japan Trains! Rapid Service Edition $64.99 14 78% 420 $27k (exactly $27,296) SHINISE GAMES, MFC STUDIO
Dragonpath older $7.99 91 78% 2.7k $22k (exactly $21,813) Ebonscale Games
No Parachute older $4.99 116 89% 3.5k $17k (exactly $17,365) Wherry
holedown older $9.99 54 85% 1.6k $16k (exactly $16,184) grapefrukt games
The Candle $4.99 71 91% 2.1k $11k (exactly $10,629) Candle Dev
OREBLAZE $4.99 64 92% 1.9k $9.6k (exactly $9,581) Ludiminal Games
Bugscraper $9.99 28 96% 840 $8.4k (exactly $8,392) Yolwoocle, OLX, Verbaudet, Ninesliced
cheapskate · EA $4.99 55 98% 1.7k $8.2k (exactly $8,234) Simple Dev Studio
Rift Miner $7.99 31 93% 930 $7.4k (exactly $7,431) TIDERAFT
DigWorld $4.99 43 81% 1.3k $6.4k (exactly $6,437) Edgar IX
Quarion $0.99 166 94% 5.0k $4.9k (exactly $4,930) Zejoant
Idle DeepMiner $4.99 32 84% 960 $4.8k (exactly $4,790) Pantomime Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.