Do I ship it?

Games › Arcade › Arcade + Traditional Roguelike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Traditional Roguelike Arcade game?

Arcade + Traditional Roguelike

Of 35 developers who shipped a Traditional Roguelike Arcade game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 36 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360 in the last 2 years and $360 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 3 / 10 build. 31 developers shipped in the last year and 36 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 36 announced, ×1.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arcade + Traditional Roguelike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 35
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.0k → $2.3k → $359 (still earning) → $60 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arcade + Traditional Roguelike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 35
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $1.7k (exactly $1,676)
Top 5% $22k (exactly $21,589)
Developers, 2 yr 35
Released games 52
Announced 36
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 520% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Traditional Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Arcade, Traditional Roguelike; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, Roguelite, Action Roguelike
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Difficult, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 489 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $360, 1 in 4 over $1.6k, 1 in 20 over $21k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. All of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 36 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arcade with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair59 devs · median $4.3k · 88 announced
  2. + TrainsFair20 devs · median $3.1k · 16 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair101 devs · median $2.6k · 84 announced
  4. + MiningFair91 devs · median $2.2k · 125 announced
  5. + FaithFair16 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  6. + Turn-BasedFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  7. + EconomyFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair72 devs · median $2.1k · 61 announced
  9. + DeckbuildingFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair68 devs · median $1.9k · 75 announced
  11. + LootFair147 devs · median $1.9k · 215 announced
  12. + VampiresFair34 devs · median $1.9k · 35 announced

All 270 pairs on the Arcade page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Silly Survivors 2025 · $24k Race Jam 2026 · $22k Bearly Brave 2025 · $20k Poker TD 2026 · $5.7k CoinPit 2026 · $5.0k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Silly Survivors $2.99 262 93% 7.9k $24k (exactly $23,501) DenaZ, SillyWorks
Race Jam $19.99 36 97% 1.1k $22k (exactly $21,589) DiffGames LLC
Bearly Brave $9.99 66 84% 2.0k $20k (exactly $19,780) Barbaric Games
Poker TD $9.99 19 63% 570 $5.7k (exactly $5,694) ViralCloud
CoinPit $6.99 24 66% 720 $5.0k (exactly $5,033) Trollix Games
Cult of Shadows $14.99 11 72% 330 $4.9k (exactly $4,947) Squirrel Tail Games
Endorlight older $0.99 147 55% 4.4k $4.4k (exactly $4,366) Old Games
WARPZONE DRIFTER older $0.99 117 80% 3.5k $3.5k (exactly $3,475) Walter Machado
Curse Rounds $3.99 28 92% 840 $3.4k (exactly $3,352) TENTACLES INTERACTIVE
Collateral Dungeon $9.99 10 100% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) Techosaurus Studios
Space Vomit $3.99 19 100% 570 $2.3k (exactly $2,274) TENTACLES INTERACTIVE
Magic Frog $3.99 14 100% 420 $1.7k (exactly $1,676) Asthon Entertainment Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.