Do I ship it?

GamesArcadeArcade + Top-Down Shooter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Top-Down Shooter Arcade game?

Arcade + Top-Down Shooter

Of 605 developers who shipped a Top-Down Shooter Arcade game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 721 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $480 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 3 / 10 build. 340 developers shipped in the last year and 721 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 721 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arcade + Top-Down Shooter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 605
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $718 → $1.3k → $898 → $599 → $807 → $360 → $269 (still earning) → $179 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arcade + Top-Down Shooter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 605
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $300 (exactly $300)
Top 25% $2.4k (exactly $2,398)
Top 5% $81k (exactly $80,919)
Developers, 2 yr 605
Released games 1,889
Announced 721
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Top-Down Shooter
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Arcade, Top-Down Shooter; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Bullet Hell, Shooter
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down, 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 120,225 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $300, 1 in 4 over $2.3k, 1 in 20 over $80k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 9 in 10 of the 304 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 721 games are announced against 340 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arcade with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair59 devs · median $4.3k · 88 announced
  2. + TrainsFair20 devs · median $3.1k · 16 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair101 devs · median $2.6k · 84 announced
  4. + MiningFair91 devs · median $2.2k · 125 announced
  5. + FaithFair16 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  6. + Turn-BasedFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  7. + EconomyFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair72 devs · median $2.1k · 61 announced
  9. + DeckbuildingFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair68 devs · median $1.9k · 75 announced
  11. + LootFair147 devs · median $1.9k · 215 announced
  12. + VampiresFair34 devs · median $1.9k · 35 announced

All 270 pairs on the Arcade page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hotline Miami 2: Wrong Number older $14.99 69,423 94% 2.1M $31M (exactly $31,219,523) Dennaton Games
Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor $12.99 46,354 86% 1.4M $18M (exactly $18,064,154) Funday Games
Brotato older $4.99 111,407 95% 3.3M $17M (exactly $16,677,628) Blobfish
BALL x PIT $14.99 24,714 95% 741k $11M (exactly $11,113,886) Kenny Sun and Friends
The Precinct $29.99 7,837 87% 235k $7.1M (exactly $7,050,949) Fallen Tree Games Ltd
Yet Another Zombie Survivors $14.99 14,123 91% 424k $6.4M (exactly $6,351,113) Awesome Games Studio
The Spell Brigade $12.99 14,731 80% 442k $5.7M (exactly $5,740,671) Bolt Blaster Games
Shotgun King: The Final Checkmate older $9.99 5,918 92% 178k $1.8M (exactly $1,773,625) PUNKCAKE Delicieux
APE OUT older $14.99 3,733 94% 112k $1.7M (exactly $1,678,730) Gabe Cuzzillo, Bennett Foddy, Maxi Boch
Suit for Hire $14.99 3,263 92% 98k $1.5M (exactly $1,467,371) Godmode Interactive
R.I.P. - Reincarnation Insurance Program $14.99 2,727 76% 82k $1.2M (exactly $1,226,332) WarmCore Studio
KILL KNIGHT $14.99 1,804 93% 54k $811k (exactly $811,259) PlaySide
Glyphica: Typing Survival · EA $9.99 2,488 90% 75k $746k (exactly $745,654) aliasBLACK
Zombieville USA 3D $9.99 2,184 92% 66k $655k (exactly $654,545) Mika Mobile, Inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.