Do I ship it?

GamesArcadeArcade + Sokoban

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sokoban Arcade game?

Arcade + Sokoban

Of 31 developers who shipped a Sokoban Arcade game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 24 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360, ×0.8 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $9.2k, ×20 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 24 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 24 announced, ×1.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arcade + Sokoban
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 31
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $298 → $748 → $359 → $657 → $539 → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arcade + Sokoban: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 31
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Top 5% $9.3k (exactly $9,281)
Developers, 2 yr 31
Released games 106
Announced 24
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Sokoban
effort 2 / 10 · high · grid pushing rules and level files

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Arcade, Sokoban; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Puzzle, Action, Adventure
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Cute, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 246 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $360, 1 in 4 over $1.1k, 1 in 20 over $9.2k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. All of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 24 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arcade with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair59 devs · median $4.3k · 88 announced
  2. + TrainsFair20 devs · median $3.1k · 16 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair101 devs · median $2.6k · 84 announced
  4. + MiningFair91 devs · median $2.2k · 125 announced
  5. + FaithFair16 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  6. + Turn-BasedFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  7. + EconomyFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair72 devs · median $2.1k · 61 announced
  9. + DeckbuildingFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair68 devs · median $1.9k · 75 announced
  11. + LootFair147 devs · median $1.9k · 215 announced
  12. + VampiresFair34 devs · median $1.9k · 35 announced

All 270 pairs on the Arcade page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DUSK '82: ULTIMATE EDITION older $6.99 383 95% 11k $80k (exactly $80,315) David Szymanski
Larcin Lazer older $9.99 241 99% 7.2k $72k (exactly $72,228) Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini
Colorful Recolor older $9.99 84 91% 2.5k $25k (exactly $25,175) Gagonfe, HugoBDesigner, Ulon
DERU - The Art of Cooperation older $14.99 54 88% 1.6k $24k (exactly $24,284) Ink Kit
Slip 'n Slime $9.99 76 94% 2.3k $23k (exactly $22,777) Wild Magic Studio
Chip's Challenge 2 older $4.99 137 87% 4.1k $21k (exactly $20,509) Niffler Ltd.
Sandy's Great Escape older $9.99 43 93% 1.3k $13k (exactly $12,887) Mocha Moose Games
CorgiSpace $4.99 62 96% 1.9k $9.3k (exactly $9,281) Adam Saltsman
SokoFrog older $2.99 101 91% 3.0k $9.1k (exactly $9,060) Solluco
PathBlasters older $11.99 25 92% 750 $9.0k (exactly $8,992) Sine Coda
Bacterian · EA $7.99 19 100% 570 $4.6k (exactly $4,554) Error 300
Crash Puzzle Hammer-San $9.99 13 100% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) SUCCESS Corp.
Move That Box $4.99 20 85% 600 $3.0k (exactly $2,994) Crashykk Games
Snakeloop $4.99 16 100% 480 $2.4k (exactly $2,395) Axel Born
Lost in Cheese $12.99 4 100% 120 $1.6k (exactly $1,559) SnøVittra
Picnic Penguin $4.99 8 100% 240 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) Neutronized
Ornate Machina: The Thousand Trials $2.99 12 100% 360 $1.1k (exactly $1,076) 大隆盛工作室
Idol Hacked! $1.99 16 43% 480 $955 (exactly $955) theNeko

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.