Do I ship it?

Games › Arcade › Arcade + Science

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Science Arcade game?

Arcade + Science

Of 45 developers who shipped a Science Arcade game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 49 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $180 in the last 2 years and $240 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 3 / 10 build. 25 developers shipped in the last year and 49 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 255% on the market, 49 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arcade + Science
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 45
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $713 → $1.1k → $5.8k → $239 → $0 → $899 → $239 (still earning) → $90 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arcade + Science: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 45
Bottom 30% $59 (exactly $59)
Median $179 (exactly $179)
Top 25% $599 (exactly $599)
Top 5% $7.2k (exactly $7,194)
Developers, 2 yr 45
Released games 144
Announced 49
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 255% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Science
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Arcade; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Simulation, Adventure
Price point
$3.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 273 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $59, median $180, 1 in 4 over $590, 1 in 20 over $7.1k.

3 in 10 developers made under $59. All of the 23 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 49 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arcade with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair59 devs · median $4.3k · 88 announced
  2. + TrainsFair20 devs · median $3.1k · 16 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair101 devs · median $2.6k · 84 announced
  4. + MiningFair91 devs · median $2.2k · 125 announced
  5. + FaithFair16 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  6. + Turn-BasedFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  7. + EconomyFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair72 devs · median $2.1k · 61 announced
  9. + DeckbuildingFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair68 devs · median $1.9k · 75 announced
  11. + LootFair147 devs · median $1.9k · 215 announced
  12. + VampiresFair34 devs · median $1.9k · 35 announced

All 270 pairs on the Arcade page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Who Wants To Be A Millionaire 2020 · $364k Osmos 2009 · $207k Boson X 2014 · $199k Brain Show: Party Game 2023 · $105k Creatura 2021 · $96k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Who Wants To Be A Millionaire older $29.99 405 52% 12k $364k (exactly $364,378) Appeal Studios, Balio Studio
Osmos older $9.99 691 86% 21k $207k (exactly $207,093) Hemisphere Games
Boson X older $4.99 1,327 93% 40k $199k (exactly $198,652) Ian MacLarty, Jon Kerney
Brain Show: Party Game older $14.99 234 73% 7.0k $105k (exactly $105,230) Simplicity Games
Creatura older $14.99 214 67% 6.4k $96k (exactly $96,236) Koksny.com
Raiden Legacy - Steam Edition older $9.99 259 54% 7.8k $78k (exactly $77,622) Dotemu
1000 days to escape older $4.99 367 84% 11k $55k (exactly $54,940) Lemon Squeezy
Fish Lab $6.99 101 77% 3.0k $21k (exactly $21,180) stonecodes
Wild Dogs older $9.99 56 96% 1.7k $17k (exactly $16,783) 2ndBoss
CRYODEATH VR older $24.99 21 85% 630 $16k (exactly $15,744) Kerag Elisaar
Super reaKtor $4.99 55 100% 1.7k $8.2k (exactly $8,234) SuperSAZ Studio
Times Trials $11.99 20 100% 600 $7.2k (exactly $7,194) Arc-Fy
Hotloop $2.99 47 85% 1.4k $4.2k (exactly $4,216) Tntlaxy GDS
Fasthand $8.99 15 93% 450 $4.0k (exactly $4,046) mefyu video games (MVG)
RogueViz Collection $6.99 11 90% 330 $2.3k (exactly $2,307) Zeno Rogue
CRT: Corner Right There! $2.99 11 100% 330 $987 (exactly $987) Benevolent Banana Studio
Off World Racing · EA $14.99 2 50% 60 $899 (exactly $899) Off World Racing Company
Outer Space Bar $8.99 3 66% 90 $809 (exactly $809) OZNA STUDIO
Legend of the Moon 2 $2.99 8 87% 240 $718 (exactly $718) GozipGame

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.