Do I ship it?

Games › Arcade › Arcade + Psychological

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Psychological Arcade game?

Arcade + Psychological

Of 50 developers who shipped a Psychological Arcade game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 54 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $360 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 3 / 10 build. 37 developers shipped in the last year and 54 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 54 announced, ×1.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arcade + Psychological
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 50
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $359 → $838 → $1.2k → $1.2k → $179 (still earning) → $239 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arcade + Psychological: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 50
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $300 (exactly $300)
Top 25% $1.3k (exactly $1,258)
Top 5% $15k (exactly $14,840)
Developers, 2 yr 50
Released games 112
Announced 54
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 185% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Psychological
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Arcade; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Multiple Endings
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 372 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $300, 1 in 4 over $1.2k, 1 in 20 over $14k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 54 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arcade with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair59 devs · median $4.3k · 88 announced
  2. + TrainsFair20 devs · median $3.1k · 16 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair101 devs · median $2.6k · 84 announced
  4. + MiningFair91 devs · median $2.2k · 125 announced
  5. + FaithFair16 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  6. + Turn-BasedFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  7. + EconomyFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair72 devs · median $2.1k · 61 announced
  9. + DeckbuildingFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair68 devs · median $1.9k · 75 announced
  11. + LootFair147 devs · median $1.9k · 215 announced
  12. + VampiresFair34 devs · median $1.9k · 35 announced

All 270 pairs on the Arcade page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Psychonauts 2 2021 · $22M It Steals 2020 · $321k Supernatural 2024 · $318k BACK OF SPACE 2021 · EA · $37k Ria's Hook 2018 · $32k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Psychonauts 2 older $59.99 12,333 95% 370k $22M (exactly $22,195,700) Double Fine Productions
It Steals older $4.99 2,144 98% 64k $321k (exactly $320,957) Zeekerss
Supernatural older $8.99 1,180 63% 35k $318k (exactly $318,246) Hitori De Productions
BACK OF SPACE · EA older $9.99 125 78% 3.8k $37k (exactly $37,462) 3RD BOOK
Ria's Hook older $2.99 359 83% 11k $32k (exactly $32,202) Fossil
Jeff The Killer: Horror Game · EA $5.99 141 84% 4.2k $25k (exactly $25,338) SU Company Games
Jump the Track $9.99 79 96% 2.4k $24k (exactly $23,676) Seed by Seed
Plank not included older $11.99 42 83% 1.3k $15k (exactly $15,107) 4 Fun Studio
1000 Deaths (Thousand Deaths) $14.99 33 87% 990 $15k (exactly $14,840) Pariah Interactive, Inc.
BORE DOME older $9.99 43 97% 1.3k $13k (exactly $12,887) Goblin Rage
DODORI · EA $14.99 16 100% 480 $7.2k (exactly $7,195) BridgeMusic
Rain Debt $4.99 39 87% 1.2k $5.8k (exactly $5,838) TheTalentlessWriter
Whisper $9.99 13 53% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) Uzun Production
White Rooms $7.99 16 87% 480 $3.8k (exactly $3,835) Simblend
Submansion $4.99 15 93% 450 $2.2k (exactly $2,246) Hrybochky studio
One Rotten Oath $6.99 10 100% 300 $2.1k (exactly $2,097) Piotr Bunkowski
Error Loop $5.99 10 90% 300 $1.8k (exactly $1,797) Absorb Reality

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.