Do I ship it?

Games › Arcade › Arcade + Nature

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Nature Arcade game?

Arcade + Nature

Of 268 developers who shipped a Nature Arcade game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 304 more are announced, ×2.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $360 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 3 / 10 build. 149 developers shipped in the last year and 304 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 304 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arcade + Nature
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 268
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $599 → $718 → $300 → $299 → $479 → $299 → $418 (still earning) → $60 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arcade + Nature: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 268
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $299 (exactly $299)
Top 25% $1.6k (exactly $1,617)
Top 5% $71k (exactly $71,298)
Developers, 2 yr 268
Released games 672
Announced 304
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Nature
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Arcade; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 16,144 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $300, 1 in 4 over $1.6k, 1 in 20 over $71k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 136 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 304 games are announced against 149 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arcade with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair59 devs · median $4.3k · 88 announced
  2. + TrainsFair20 devs · median $3.1k · 16 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair101 devs · median $2.6k · 84 announced
  4. + MiningFair91 devs · median $2.2k · 125 announced
  5. + FaithFair16 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  6. + Turn-BasedFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  7. + EconomyFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair72 devs · median $2.1k · 61 announced
  9. + DeckbuildingFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair68 devs · median $1.9k · 75 announced
  11. + LootFair147 devs · median $1.9k · 215 announced
  12. + VampiresFair34 devs · median $1.9k · 35 announced

All 270 pairs on the Arcade page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Call of the Wild: The Angler™ 2022 · $5.5M Shredders 2022 · $3.4M Cat Goes Fishing 2015 · $3.2M Everything is Crab: The Animal Evolution Roguelite 2026 · $2.1M Lonely Mountains: Downhill 2019 · $1.6M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Call of the Wild: The Angler™ older $29.99 6,122 63% 184k $5.5M (exactly $5,507,963) Expansive Worlds
Shredders older $29.99 3,818 94% 115k $3.4M (exactly $3,435,055) FoamPunch
Cat Goes Fishing older $6.99 15,431 94% 463k $3.2M (exactly $3,235,881) Cat5Games
Everything is Crab: The Animal Evolution Roguelite $9.99 6,876 76% 206k $2.1M (exactly $2,060,737) Odd Dreams Digital
Lonely Mountains: Downhill older $19.99 2,741 89% 82k $1.6M (exactly $1,643,778) Megagon Industries
Flower older $6.99 4,790 79% 144k $1.0M (exactly $1,004,463) thatgamecompany
Kayak VR: Mirage older $22.99 1,006 82% 30k $694k (exactly $693,838) Better Than Life
Darwin's Paradox! $24.99 843 87% 25k $632k (exactly $631,997) ZDT Studio
Pure Rock Crawling $14.99 1,291 83% 39k $581k (exactly $580,563) Maciej Kuzianik
Lonely Mountains: Snow Riders $24.99 749 91% 22k $562k (exactly $561,525) Megagon Industries
TETRIS® THE GRAND MASTER 4 -ABSOLUTE EYE- $24.99 610 87% 18k $457k (exactly $457,317) ARIKA
Sludgineers $6.99 1,579 87% 47k $331k (exactly $331,116) Snickerdoodle Games, Funk Games
SNØ: Ultimate Freeriding $11.99 920 96% 28k $331k (exactly $330,924) Studio Gauntlet
Disc Golf Masters · EA $24.99 427 83% 13k $320k (exactly $320,122) Spinoff Games
Fishing Inc $4.99 1,833 91% 55k $274k (exactly $274,400) BigBonk Studio
Budgie's Bug Shop $5.99 1,016 96% 30k $183k (exactly $182,575) Moon Lagoon

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.