Do I ship it?

GamesArcadeArcade + Mystery Dungeon

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Dungeon Arcade game?

Arcade + Mystery Dungeon

Of 35 developers who shipped a Mystery Dungeon Arcade game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 31 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $360 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 3 / 10 build. 16 developers shipped in the last year and 31 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 260% on the market, 31 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arcade + Mystery Dungeon
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 35
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $359 → $7.4k → $748 → $60 → $1.1k → $8.5k (still earning) → $358 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arcade + Mystery Dungeon: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 35
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $300 (exactly $300)
Top 25% $1.5k (exactly $1,497)
Top 5% $422k (exactly $422,045)
Developers, 2 yr 35
Released games 134
Announced 31
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 260% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Mystery Dungeon
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Arcade, Mystery Dungeon; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Dungeon Crawler, Roguelike, Action
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 2,924 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $300, 1 in 4 over $1.4k, 1 in 20 over $420k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. All of the 23 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 31 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arcade with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair59 devs · median $4.3k · 88 announced
  2. + TrainsFair20 devs · median $3.1k · 16 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair101 devs · median $2.6k · 84 announced
  4. + MiningFair91 devs · median $2.2k · 125 announced
  5. + FaithFair16 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  6. + Turn-BasedFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  7. + EconomyFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair72 devs · median $2.1k · 61 announced
  9. + DeckbuildingFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair68 devs · median $1.9k · 75 announced
  11. + LootFair147 devs · median $1.9k · 215 announced
  12. + VampiresFair34 devs · median $1.9k · 35 announced

All 270 pairs on the Arcade page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Goblin Cleanup · EA $19.99 1,615 87% 48k $969k (exactly $968,515) Crisalu Games
Skull Horde $12.99 1,083 81% 32k $422k (exactly $422,045) 8BitSkull
Strikey Sisters older $9.99 785 90% 24k $235k (exactly $235,264) DYA Games
Spooky Station older $4.99 345 88% 10k $52k (exactly $51,646) Coletivo Vaca Roxa, Vee, JoyMasher, PKO… (Coletivo Vaca Roxa, Vee, JoyMasher, PKO Game Studio, Spookids Team, Calangames, Expresso Studios, Pastel Studios, Heavy Sheep, LASTONE, Asteristic Game Studio)
Bobo's Big Tower $9.99 93 92% 2.8k $28k (exactly $27,872) SillyKitty
Barbearian older $12.99 66 74% 2.0k $26k (exactly $25,720) Kimmo Lahtinen
DOOMER'S ADVENTURE older $9.99 64 85% 1.9k $19k (exactly $19,181) deadworld games
JustAxe older $10.99 53 73% 1.6k $17k (exactly $17,474) Supergalactiс Gamedev
No Parachute older $4.99 116 89% 3.5k $17k (exactly $17,365) Wherry
Dreamstones older $11.99 45 91% 1.4k $16k (exactly $16,186) Windybeard
Heroes Against Time $7.49 53 94% 1.6k $12k (exactly $11,909) David Vinokurov
Nightfall Empress $14.99 19 84% 570 $8.5k (exactly $8,544) SEEP
Collateral Dungeon $9.99 10 100% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) Techosaurus Studios
DOWNMOUSE $3.99 25 92% 750 $3.0k (exactly $2,992) WobblyHandStudio
Elf Adventure: The Lost Castle $6.99 14 28% 420 $2.9k (exactly $2,936) 430Games
1 HP DUNGEON $4.99 10 100% 300 $1.5k (exactly $1,497) mauneven
Quiz Kingdom: Elementary Math Kids RPG $17.99 2 50% 60 $1.1k (exactly $1,079) DIG Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.