Do I ship it?

GamesArcadeArcade + Modern

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Modern-Day Arcade game?

Arcade + Modern

Of 105 developers who shipped a Modern-Day Arcade game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 99 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $390 in the last 2 years and $480 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 4 / 10 build. 58 developers shipped in the last year and 99 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 110% on the market, 99 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arcade + Modern
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 105
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $539 → $1.7k → $1.5k → $1.4k → $299 → $599 → $238 (still earning) → $300 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arcade + Modern: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 105
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $386 (exactly $386)
Top 25% $4.3k (exactly $4,309)
Top 5% $159k (exactly $159,161)
Developers, 2 yr 105
Released games 329
Announced 99
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 110% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Modern
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Arcade; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Score Attack, Simulation
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 43,211 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $390, 1 in 4 over $4.3k, 1 in 20 over $150k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 51 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 99 games are announced against 58 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arcade with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair59 devs · median $4.3k · 88 announced
  2. + TrainsFair20 devs · median $3.1k · 16 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair101 devs · median $2.6k · 84 announced
  4. + MiningFair91 devs · median $2.2k · 125 announced
  5. + FaithFair16 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  6. + Turn-BasedFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  7. + EconomyFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair72 devs · median $2.1k · 61 announced
  9. + DeckbuildingFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair68 devs · median $1.9k · 75 announced
  11. + LootFair147 devs · median $1.9k · 215 announced
  12. + VampiresFair34 devs · median $1.9k · 35 announced

All 270 pairs on the Arcade page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hatsune Miku: Project DIVA Mega Mix+ older $39.39 19,507 94% 585k $23M (exactly $23,051,422) SEGA
Rhythm Doctor $19.99 25,021 98% 751k $15M (exactly $15,005,094) 7th Beat Games
MELTY BLOOD: TYPE LUMINA older $49.99 9,130 88% 274k $14M (exactly $13,692,261) FRENCH-BREAD, TYPE-MOON, Lasengle Inc.,… (FRENCH-BREAD, TYPE-MOON, Lasengle Inc., TAMSOFT CORPORATION, GameLoop Inc.)
Test Drive Unlimited Solar Crown older $49.99 6,536 38% 196k $9.8M (exactly $9,802,039) KT Racing
EZ2ON REBOOT : R older $44.99 5,972 91% 179k $8.1M (exactly $8,060,408) Neonovice Co., Ltd., SQUARE PIXELS
Yet Another Zombie Survivors $14.99 14,123 91% 424k $6.4M (exactly $6,351,113) Awesome Games Studio
Instruments of Destruction older $19.99 1,429 91% 43k $857k (exactly $856,971) Radiangames
Beatblock · EA $14.99 1,237 97% 37k $556k (exactly $556,279) BubbleTabby
Fashion Police Squad older $19.99 872 90% 26k $523k (exactly $522,938) Mopeful Games
Crossfire: Sierra Squad older $29.99 479 73% 14k $431k (exactly $430,956) Smilegate
Metal Thunder · EA $10.99 567 76% 17k $187k (exactly $186,940) Dumbbell Games
Gaming Cafe Simulator $13.99 385 83% 12k $162k (exactly $161,584) Prapancha Studios
BAZOOKA: Rhythm Game $7.99 664 98% 20k $159k (exactly $159,161) Gregory Seguru, Codrin Bradea
Shooters, Ready! $4.99 807 99% 24k $121k (exactly $120,808) おこめたべたべず
Truxton Extreme $24.99 93 95% 2.8k $70k (exactly $69,722) Tatsujin
Stackflow $6.99 195 88% 5.9k $41k (exactly $40,892) Caue Ferrareto
Jeepney Simulator 2 $8.99 119 91% 3.6k $32k (exactly $32,094) Spacezero Interactive

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.