Do I ship it?

GamesArcadeArcade + Investigation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Investigation Arcade game?

Arcade + Investigation

Of 28 developers who shipped an Investigation Arcade game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 43 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $270 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 3 / 10 build. 16 developers shipped in the last year and 43 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 43 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arcade + Investigation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 28
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $839 → $1.7k → $4.7k → $299 → $807 → $150 (still earning) → $90 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arcade + Investigation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 28
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $269 (exactly $269)
Top 25% $3.0k (exactly $2,997)
Top 5% $265k (exactly $265,134)
Developers, 2 yr 28
Released games 80
Announced 43
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Investigation
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Arcade, Investigation; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Puzzle, Exploration
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Atmospheric, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 8,474 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $270, 1 in 4 over $2.9k, 1 in 20 over $260k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 9 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 43 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arcade with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair59 devs · median $4.3k · 88 announced
  2. + TrainsFair20 devs · median $3.1k · 16 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair101 devs · median $2.6k · 84 announced
  4. + MiningFair91 devs · median $2.2k · 125 announced
  5. + FaithFair16 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  6. + Turn-BasedFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  7. + EconomyFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair72 devs · median $2.1k · 61 announced
  9. + DeckbuildingFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair68 devs · median $1.9k · 75 announced
  11. + LootFair147 devs · median $1.9k · 215 announced
  12. + VampiresFair34 devs · median $1.9k · 35 announced

All 270 pairs on the Arcade page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Precinct $29.99 7,837 87% 235k $7.1M (exactly $7,050,949) Fallen Tree Games Ltd
Supernatural older $8.99 1,180 63% 35k $318k (exactly $318,246) Hitori De Productions
Agatha Christie - Death on the Nile $39.99 221 78% 6.6k $265k (exactly $265,134) Microids Studio Lyon
Crash Time 2 older $4.99 1,170 63% 35k $175k (exactly $175,149) ·
Supercow older $7.99 183 97% 5.5k $44k (exactly $43,865) Nevosoft
Jeffrey Eggstein · EA $4.99 290 94% 8.7k $43k (exactly $43,413) Grabba Guild Games LLC
Paranormal Detective: Escape from the 80's older $9.99 82 92% 2.5k $25k (exactly $24,575) LunaBeat
Blacklist Mafia older $9.99 65 83% 2.0k $19k (exactly $19,480) VICTORIA Games
Press Any Button older $1.99 221 92% 6.6k $13k (exactly $13,194) Eugene Zubko
Memori · EA $14.99 22 95% 660 $9.9k (exactly $9,893) PracticalNPC
Sonar Scout $5.99 26 100% 780 $4.7k (exactly $4,672) Dan Schumacher, Hjalte Tagmose, Neil Do… (Dan Schumacher, Hjalte Tagmose, Neil Doppelmayr, Christoph Englert, Pontus Liljekvist, Hugo Roque)
The Power of Fish $4.99 25 96% 750 $3.7k (exactly $3,742) Strangefish Studios
Collateral Dungeon $9.99 10 100% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) Techosaurus Studios
5 Minutes Until Self-Destruction $1.99 28 96% 840 $1.7k (exactly $1,672) Part Time Monkey
Dark Investigation : Experiment $4.99 6 100% 180 $898 (exactly $898) TheLittleGames
Fake It $2.99 9 100% 270 $807 (exactly $807) Androbyte

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.