Do I ship it?

Games › Arcade › Arcade + Grid-Based Movement

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Grid-Based Movement Arcade game?

Arcade + Grid-Based Movement

Of 121 developers who shipped a Grid-Based Movement Arcade game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 87 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $240 in the last 2 years and $300 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 3 / 10 build. 76 developers shipped in the last year and 87 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 87 announced, ×1.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arcade + Grid-Based Movement
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 121
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.0k → $1.1k → $718 → $239 → $300 → $359 → $60 (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arcade + Grid-Based Movement: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 121
Bottom 30% $45 (exactly $45)
Median $239 (exactly $239)
Top 25% $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Top 5% $30k (exactly $29,987)
Developers, 2 yr 121
Released games 318
Announced 87
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Grid-Based Movement
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Arcade, Grid-Based Movement; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Puzzle, Action, Strategy
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Retro
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 25,552 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $240, 1 in 4 over $1.1k, 1 in 20 over $29k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. Nearly all of the 50 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 87 games are announced against 76 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arcade with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair59 devs · median $4.3k · 88 announced
  2. + TrainsFair20 devs · median $3.1k · 16 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair101 devs · median $2.6k · 84 announced
  4. + MiningFair91 devs · median $2.2k · 125 announced
  5. + FaithFair16 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  6. + Turn-BasedFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  7. + EconomyFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair72 devs · median $2.1k · 61 announced
  9. + DeckbuildingFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair68 devs · median $1.9k · 75 announced
  11. + LootFair147 devs · median $1.9k · 215 announced
  12. + VampiresFair34 devs · median $1.9k · 35 announced

All 270 pairs on the Arcade page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

STAR WARS Zero Company™ 2026 · $29M Xenonauts 2 2026 · $5.8M DUSK '82: ULTIMATE EDITION 2021 · $80k Mythmatch 2026 · $74k Larcin Lazer 2023 · $72k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
STAR WARS Zero Company™ $49.99 19,521 82% 586k $29M (exactly $29,275,644) Bit Reactor
Xenonauts 2 $39.99 4,853 81% 146k $5.8M (exactly $5,822,144) Goldhawk Interactive
DUSK '82: ULTIMATE EDITION older $6.99 383 95% 11k $80k (exactly $80,315) David Szymanski
Mythmatch $19.99 124 98% 3.7k $74k (exactly $74,363) Team Artichoke
Larcin Lazer older $9.99 241 99% 7.2k $72k (exactly $72,228) Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini
Dungeon Deathball older $11.99 193 95% 5.8k $69k (exactly $69,422) Matt Glanville
Dragon Ruins II $9.99 209 87% 6.3k $63k (exactly $62,637) Graverobber Foundation
Dragon Ruins older $4.99 365 90% 11k $55k (exactly $54,640) Graverobber Foundation
Merge Maestro $3.99 384 93% 12k $46k (exactly $45,965) Stingless
Stackflow $6.99 195 88% 5.9k $41k (exactly $40,892) Caue Ferrareto
KAZ $6.99 143 94% 4.3k $30k (exactly $29,987) Kalinarm
I, Robot $14.99 38 92% 1.1k $17k (exactly $17,089) Llamasoft Ltd.
WORMHOLE $9.99 51 98% 1.5k $15k (exactly $15,285) Pocket Moon Games, ThanaThan
Writer's Block $9.99 34 94% 1.0k $10k (exactly $10,190) SinksAdventure

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.