Do I ship it?

Games › Arcade › Arcade + Futuristic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Futuristic Arcade game?

Arcade + Futuristic

Of 528 developers who shipped a Futuristic Arcade game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 674 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 4 / 10 build. 322 developers shipped in the last year and 674 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 674 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arcade + Futuristic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 528
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $449 → $524 → $1.1k → $539 → $479 → $539 → $449 (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arcade + Futuristic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 528
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $300 (exactly $300)
Top 25% $2.1k (exactly $2,096)
Top 5% $24k (exactly $23,976)
Developers, 2 yr 528
Released games 1,575
Announced 674
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Futuristic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Arcade; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Bullet Hell
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Retro, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 73% positive over 46,239 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $300, 1 in 4 over $2.0k, 1 in 20 over $23k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 9 in 10 of the 249 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 674 games are announced against 322 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arcade with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair59 devs · median $4.3k · 88 announced
  2. + TrainsFair20 devs · median $3.1k · 16 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair101 devs · median $2.6k · 84 announced
  4. + MiningFair91 devs · median $2.2k · 125 announced
  5. + FaithFair16 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  6. + Turn-BasedFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  7. + EconomyFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair72 devs · median $2.1k · 61 announced
  9. + DeckbuildingFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair68 devs · median $1.9k · 75 announced
  11. + LootFair147 devs · median $1.9k · 215 announced
  12. + VampiresFair34 devs · median $1.9k · 35 announced

All 270 pairs on the Arcade page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

REMATCH 2025 · $36M Hatsune Miku: Project DIVA Mega Mix+ 2022 · $23M Distance 2018 · $4.4M Vanquish 2017 · $4.2M GRIP: Combat Racing 2018 · $3.3M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
REMATCH $29.99 39,905 70% 1.2M $36M (exactly $35,902,528) Sloclap
Hatsune Miku: Project DIVA Mega Mix+ older $39.39 19,507 94% 585k $23M (exactly $23,051,422) SEGA
Distance older $24.99 5,832 93% 175k $4.4M (exactly $4,372,250) Refract
Vanquish older $19.99 6,974 89% 209k $4.2M (exactly $4,182,308) PlatinumGames, Little Stone Software
GRIP: Combat Racing older $29.99 3,669 86% 110k $3.3M (exactly $3,300,999) Caged Element
Pistol Whip older $29.99 3,586 94% 108k $3.2M (exactly $3,226,324) Cloudhead Games Ltd.
Chorus older $24.99 3,876 81% 116k $2.9M (exactly $2,905,837) Deep Silver Fishlabs
Raw Data older $39.99 2,036 81% 61k $2.4M (exactly $2,442,589) Survios
HUNTDOWN older $19.99 4,059 94% 122k $2.4M (exactly $2,434,182) Easy Trigger Games
Spin Rhythm XD older $19.99 3,788 97% 114k $2.3M (exactly $2,271,664) Super Spin Digital
Screamer $59.99 1,039 80% 31k $1.9M (exactly $1,869,888) Milestone S.r.l.
Sixtar Gate: STARTRAIL $24.99 1,425 86% 43k $1.1M (exactly $1,068,322) Starlike Inc.
Star Fire: Eternal Cycle $16.99 1,012 91% 30k $516k (exactly $515,816) Ethereal Fish Studio
Sektori $14.99 897 96% 27k $403k (exactly $403,381) Kimmo Lahtinen
Warhammer 40,000: Speed Freeks $19.99 493 85% 15k $296k (exactly $295,652) Caged Element
Earthion $19.99 483 95% 14k $290k (exactly $289,655) Ancient Corporation, Bitwave Games
VRacer Hoverbike $29.99 307 89% 9.2k $276k (exactly $276,208) VertexBreakers
Neon Inferno $19.99 378 92% 11k $227k (exactly $226,687) Zenovia Interactive
Advent NEON® $19.99 300 98% 9.0k $180k (exactly $179,910) CryoGX

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.