Do I ship it?

GamesArcadeArcade + Choose Your Own Adventure

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choose Your Own Adventure Arcade game?

Arcade + Choose Your Own Adventure

Of 79 developers who shipped a Choose Your Own Adventure Arcade game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 84 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×1.1 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $30k, ×65 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 84 games are announced against 33 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 84 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arcade + Choose Your Own Adventure
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 79
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $599 → $269 → $7.0k → $4.0k → $446 → $299 → $839 (still earning) → $898 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arcade + Choose Your Own Adventure: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 79
Bottom 30% $148 (exactly $148)
Median $538 (exactly $538)
Top 25% $3.9k (exactly $3,896)
Top 5% $31k (exactly $30,869)
Developers, 2 yr 79
Released games 250
Announced 84
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Choose Your Own Adventure
effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Arcade, Choose Your Own Adventure; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Adventure, Action-Adventure
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $13.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $13.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 1,650 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $540, 1 in 4 over $3.8k, 1 in 20 over $30k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 59 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 84 games are announced against 33 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arcade with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair59 devs · median $4.3k · 88 announced
  2. + TrainsFair20 devs · median $3.1k · 16 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair101 devs · median $2.6k · 84 announced
  4. + MiningFair91 devs · median $2.2k · 125 announced
  5. + FaithFair16 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  6. + Turn-BasedFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  7. + EconomyFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair72 devs · median $2.1k · 61 announced
  9. + DeckbuildingFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair68 devs · median $1.9k · 75 announced
  11. + LootFair147 devs · median $1.9k · 215 announced
  12. + VampiresFair34 devs · median $1.9k · 35 announced

All 270 pairs on the Arcade page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Refind Self: The Personality Test Game older $7.99 3,592 87% 108k $861k (exactly $861,002) Lizardry
ALTF4 older $2.99 9,452 80% 284k $848k (exactly $847,844) PUMPKIM
Corsairs Legacy - Pirate Action RPG & Sea Battles · EA older $19.99 1,094 74% 33k $656k (exactly $656,072) Mauris, Tech-5 UG
Mayhem Brawler older $19.99 836 89% 25k $501k (exactly $501,349) Hero Concept
Corner Kitchen Fast Food Simulator $13.99 411 85% 12k $172k (exactly $172,497) Purple Heads Games
Furry Love older $0.99 4,504 87% 135k $134k (exactly $133,769) Red Six Development
FEED THE AI $5.99 557 90% 17k $100k (exactly $100,093) Weird Kid Games
Hole Dweller older $7.99 260 96% 7.8k $62k (exactly $62,322) Thigh High Games
Mister Furry older $0.99 1,947 90% 58k $58k (exactly $57,826) Red Six Development
Andy's Apple Farm · EA older $2.99 639 89% 19k $57k (exactly $57,318) M36 Games
Egg Squeeze $3.99 374 98% 11k $45k (exactly $44,768) MATTER GAMES
Tech Store Simulator $9.99 103 61% 3.1k $31k (exactly $30,869) Astrasoft
SPHERE ROLLER $49.99 11 100% 330 $16k (exactly $16,497) Gamesforgames
1000 Deaths (Thousand Deaths) $14.99 33 87% 990 $15k (exactly $14,840) Pariah Interactive, Inc.
Don't Crash $4.99 68 98% 2.0k $10k (exactly $10,180) Override Studio
The Riese Project · EA $14.99 21 76% 630 $9.4k (exactly $9,444) MasashigeDev
Kitty Burger $10.99 23 100% 690 $7.6k (exactly $7,583) Kowal Games
Girls and Blocks $4.99 49 75% 1.5k $7.3k (exactly $7,335) SeDe Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.