Do I ship it?

Games › Arcade › Arcade + Bullet Heaven

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Bullet Heaven Arcade game?

Arcade + Bullet Heaven

Of 193 developers who shipped a Bullet Heaven Arcade game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 305 more are announced, ×2.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.1k, ×6.4 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $960k, ×2040 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 305 games are announced against 150 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 305 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arcade + Bullet Heaven
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 193
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $242k → $150k → $30k → $17k → $9.7k → $19k → $2.0k (still earning) → $898 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arcade + Bullet Heaven: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 193
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $3.1k (exactly $3,050)
Top 25% $26k (exactly $26,367)
Top 5% $969k (exactly $969,184)
Developers, 2 yr 193
Released games 254
Announced 305
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 250% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Bullet Heaven
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Arcade, Bullet Heaven; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Roguelite, Action Roguelike
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down, 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 269,950 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $3.1k, 1 in 4 over $26k, 1 in 20 over $960k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 6 in 10 of the 43 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 305 games are announced against 150 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arcade with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair59 devs · median $4.3k · 88 announced
  2. + TrainsFair20 devs · median $3.1k · 16 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair101 devs · median $2.6k · 84 announced
  4. + MiningFair91 devs · median $2.2k · 125 announced
  5. + FaithFair16 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  6. + Turn-BasedFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  7. + EconomyFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair72 devs · median $2.1k · 61 announced
  9. + DeckbuildingFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair68 devs · median $1.9k · 75 announced
  11. + LootFair147 devs · median $1.9k · 215 announced
  12. + VampiresFair34 devs · median $1.9k · 35 announced

All 270 pairs on the Arcade page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Megabonk 2025 · $30M Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor 2025 · $18M Brotato 2023 · $17M Soulstone Survivors 2025 · $12M BALL x PIT 2025 · $11M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Megabonk $9.99 100,202 94% 3.0M $30M (exactly $30,030,539) vedinad
Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor $12.99 46,354 86% 1.4M $18M (exactly $18,064,154) Funday Games
Brotato older $4.99 111,407 95% 3.3M $17M (exactly $16,677,628) Blobfish
Soulstone Survivors $14.99 25,749 91% 772k $12M (exactly $11,579,325) Game Smithing Limited
BALL x PIT $14.99 24,714 95% 741k $11M (exactly $11,113,886) Kenny Sun and Friends
Yet Another Zombie Survivors $14.99 14,123 91% 424k $6.4M (exactly $6,351,113) Awesome Games Studio
Halls of Torment $6.66 30,752 95% 923k $6.1M (exactly $6,144,250) Chasing Carrots
The Spell Brigade $12.99 14,731 80% 442k $5.7M (exactly $5,740,671) Bolt Blaster Games
Rogue: Genesia $14.99 8,111 90% 243k $3.6M (exactly $3,647,517) Ouadi Huard
R.I.P. - Reincarnation Insurance Program $14.99 2,727 76% 82k $1.2M (exactly $1,226,332) WarmCore Studio
Temtem: Swarm $12.99 2,487 77% 75k $969k (exactly $969,184) Crema, GGTech Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.