Do I ship it?

GamesArcadeArcade + Assassins

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Assassin Arcade game?

Arcade + Assassins

Only 14 developers shipped an Assassin Arcade game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Suit for Hire, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 29 more are announced, ×5.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $210 in the last 2 years and $360 over 4, against a market of $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build. 5 developers shipped in the last year and 29 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 25% on the market, 29 announced, ×5.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arcade + Assassins
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $299 → $6.6k → $179 → $2.9k → $3.4k
Outcomes for Arcade + Assassins: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $210 (exactly $210)
Top 25% $2.9k (exactly $2,876)
Top 5% $1.5M (exactly $1,467,371)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 57
Announced 29
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 25% on the market, supply 45% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Assassins
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Arcade; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Bullet Time
Price point
$3.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Pixel Graphics, 3D, Cartoony
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 3,705 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $210, 1 in 4 over $2.8k, 1 in 20 over $1.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. 9 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 29 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arcade with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair59 devs · median $4.3k · 88 announced
  2. + TrainsFair20 devs · median $3.1k · 16 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair101 devs · median $2.6k · 84 announced
  4. + MiningFair91 devs · median $2.2k · 125 announced
  5. + FaithFair16 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  6. + Turn-BasedFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  7. + EconomyFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair72 devs · median $2.1k · 61 announced
  9. + DeckbuildingFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair68 devs · median $1.9k · 75 announced
  11. + LootFair147 devs · median $1.9k · 215 announced
  12. + VampiresFair34 devs · median $1.9k · 35 announced

All 270 pairs on the Arcade page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Pistol Whip older $29.99 3,586 94% 108k $3.2M (exactly $3,226,324) Cloudhead Games Ltd.
Suit for Hire $14.99 3,263 92% 98k $1.5M (exactly $1,467,371) Godmode Interactive
Garfield Kart older $4.99 9,662 88% 290k $1.4M (exactly $1,446,401) Artefacts Studio
Children of the Sun older $14.99 2,005 92% 60k $902k (exactly $901,648) René Rother
Mr. Shifty older $14.99 855 88% 26k $384k (exactly $384,494) Team Shifty
Neon Inferno $19.99 378 92% 11k $227k (exactly $226,687) Zenovia Interactive
Ganryu 2 older $17.99 72 58% 2.2k $39k (exactly $38,858) Storybird Studio
Dead Second older $14.99 47 87% 1.4k $21k (exactly $21,136) Spunge Games Pty Ltd
Kate: Collateral Damage older $7.99 82 92% 2.5k $20k (exactly $19,655) Ludic Studios
Cavern Escape Extremely Hard game!!! older $4.99 127 49% 3.8k $19k (exactly $19,012) White Dog Games
Santa's Hitlist CEO Edition $3.99 28 96% 840 $3.4k (exactly $3,352) Unlucky Studios, UnluckySaurus (Erick R… (Unlucky Studios, UnluckySaurus (Erick Ramirez))
Lightning Katana $7.99 12 100% 360 $2.9k (exactly $2,876) Juicy Pulp Games
Justice Ninja Casey $5.99 7 85% 210 $1.3k (exactly $1,258) Sunsoft
Stealth Syndicate $3.99 8 100% 240 $958 (exactly $958) Vincent Lopes-Vicente
SZX $6.99 1 100% 30 $210 (exactly $210) Venagon
Getaway Golf $0.99 5 100% 150 $148 (exactly $148) schizmo
Samurai Shiba $1.99 2 100% 60 $119 (exactly $119) Christopher Hoey
Slide Faster $1.99 1 100% 30 $60 (exactly $60) Puzzle Drop Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.