Games › Arcade › Arcade + Alternate History
Should I ship an Alternate-History Arcade game?
Arcade + Alternate History
Of 46 developers who shipped an Alternate-History Arcade game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 76 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $360 in the last 2 years and $420 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 24 developers shipped in the last year and 76 games are announced.
| Bottom 30% | $150 (exactly $150) |
|---|---|
| Median | $358 (exactly $358) |
| Top 25% | $1.4k (exactly $1,438) |
| Top 5% | $33k (exactly $32,667) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 46 |
| Released games | 171 |
| Announced | 76 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 200% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Arcade
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
- Alternate History
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Arcade; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Strategy
- Price point
- $4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Colorful, Pixel Graphics, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 88% positive over 1,211 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 32 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 76 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Arcade with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair
- + TrainsFair
- + Visual NovelFair
- + MiningFair
- + FaithFair
- + Turn-BasedFair
- + EconomyFair
- + LGBTQ+Fair
- + DeckbuildingFair
- + Card BattlerFair
- + LootFair
- + VampiresFair
Comparable games
Call of Juarez: Gunslinger 2013 · $9.4M 
Stubbs the Zombie in Rebel Without a Pulse 2021 · $1.1M 
Cook, Serve, Delicious! 2!! 2017 · $959k 
Corsairs Legacy - Pirate Action RPG & Sea Battles 2024 · EA · $656k 
Slave Zero X 2024 · $328k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Call of Juarez: Gunslinger | older | $14.99 | 20,869 94% | 626k | $9.4M (exactly $9,384,789) | Techland |
| | Stubbs the Zombie in Rebel Without a Pulse | older | $19.99 | 1,781 89% | 53k | $1.1M (exactly $1,068,066) | Aspyr |
| | Cook, Serve, Delicious! 2!! | older | $14.99 | 2,133 90% | 64k | $959k (exactly $959,210) | Vertigo Gaming Inc. |
| | Corsairs Legacy - Pirate Action RPG & Sea Battles | · EA older | $19.99 | 1,094 74% | 33k | $656k (exactly $656,072) | Mauris, Tech-5 UG |
| | Slave Zero X | older | $24.99 | 438 75% | 13k | $328k (exactly $328,369) | Poppy Works |
 | Deliver At All Costs | $29.99 | 320 73% | 9.6k | $288k (exactly $287,904) | Studio Far Out Games | |
 | IS Defense | older | $5.99 | 1,465 91% | 44k | $263k (exactly $263,260) | Destructive Creations |
 | A Bumpy Ride | $14.99 | 569 97% | 17k | $256k (exactly $255,879) | Cosmoporium Games | |
 | Waves of Steel | older | $19.99 | 408 90% | 12k | $245k (exactly $244,678) | TMA Games LLC |
 | 7th Sector | older | $10.99 | 643 72% | 19k | $212k (exactly $211,997) | Носков Сергей |
 | Saint Slayer: Spear of Sacrilege | $9.99 | 109 94% | 3.3k | $33k (exactly $32,667) | Lillymo Games | |
 | Sexy Iron Maidens | $4.99 | 123 69% | 3.7k | $18k (exactly $18,413) | Earl Marx | |
 | War of Wheels | · EA | $14.99 | 13 100% | 390 | $5.8k (exactly $5,846) | Dreambits Studio |
 | DESTROYER BURGER | $14.99 | 13 100% | 390 | $5.8k (exactly $5,846) | Obscurant Games | |
 | Air Hares | $8.99 | 14 100% | 420 | $3.8k (exactly $3,776) | Wondoro LLC | |
 | Agent Fall | $4.99 | 24 95% | 720 | $3.6k (exactly $3,593) | Pufferfish Digital | |
 | Sakamoto Dangerous Barrage | $2.99 | 22 100% | 660 | $2.0k (exactly $1,973) | Retsu Teikoku | |
 | Gnomes Garden: Mask of The Rat King | $14.99 | 4 50% | 120 | $1.8k (exactly $1,799) | 8floor ltd |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.