Do I ship it?

Games › Roguelike › Roguelike + Aliens

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Alien Roguelike?

Roguelike + Aliens

Of 142 developers who shipped an Alien Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 212 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $570, ×1.2 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $510k, ×1086 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 212 games are announced against 78 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 212 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelike + Aliens
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 142
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.6k → $898 → $2.9k → $2.1k → $449 → $1.7k → $539 (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelike + Aliens: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 142
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $570 (exactly $570)
Top 25% $4.8k (exactly $4,823)
Top 5% $516k (exactly $515,816)
Developers, 2 yr 142
Released games 307
Announced 212
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Aliens
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Roguelike; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelite, Action, Strategy
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 66,418 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $570, 1 in 4 over $4.8k, 1 in 20 over $510k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 8 in 10 of the 72 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 212 games are announced against 78 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelike with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  2. + 6DOFFair15 devs · median $4.7k · 7 announced
  3. + Grand StrategyFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  4. + VampiresFair59 devs · median $3.1k · 58 announced
  5. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.9k · 17 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair60 devs · median $1.8k · 85 announced
  7. + SuperheroFair12 devs · median $1.1k · 17 announced
  8. + IdlerFair160 devs · median $1.0k · 206 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair841 devs · median $959 · 1,066 announced
  10. + Walking SimulatorFair29 devs · median $718 · 28 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair264 devs · median $599 · 320 announced
  12. + Traditional RoguelikeFair247 devs · median $599 · 314 announced

All 231 pairs on the Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor 2025 · $18M Star Trek: Voyager - Across the Unknown 2026 · $4.4M Tower Dominion 2025 · $2.7M Wall World 2023 · $2.4M Drill Core 2025 · $1.3M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor $12.99 46,354 86% 1.4M $18M (exactly $18,064,154) Funday Games
Star Trek: Voyager - Across the Unknown $34.99 4,162 79% 125k $4.4M (exactly $4,368,851) Gamexcite
Tower Dominion $17.49 5,117 85% 154k $2.7M (exactly $2,684,890) Parallel 45 Games
Wall World older $6.99 11,353 90% 341k $2.4M (exactly $2,380,724) Alawar
Drill Core $19.99 2,130 84% 64k $1.3M (exactly $1,277,361) Hungry Couch Games
Greedland $12.99 2,919 83% 88k $1.1M (exactly $1,137,534) VaMP He
Shortest Trip to Earth older $25.99 1,257 76% 38k $980k (exactly $980,083) Interactive Fate
Wall World 2 $11.99 1,749 73% 52k $629k (exactly $629,115) Alawar
Alien Shooter older $4.99 3,919 95% 118k $587k (exactly $586,674) Sigma Team Inc.
Space Beast Terror Fright older $14.99 1,255 91% 38k $564k (exactly $564,374) nornware AB
TurretGirls $9.99 1,882 85% 56k $564k (exactly $564,035) NANAIRO ENTERPRISE
Star Fire: Eternal Cycle $16.99 1,012 91% 30k $516k (exactly $515,816) Ethereal Fish Studio
Roboquest VR $29.99 395 87% 12k $355k (exactly $355,382) Flat2VR Studios, RyseUp Studios
Void Miner – Incremental Asteroids Roguelite $5.99 698 83% 21k $125k (exactly $125,431) RyanJakob

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.