Do I ship it?

GamesArcadeArcade + Aliens

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Alien Arcade game?

Arcade + Aliens

Of 297 developers who shipped an Alien Arcade game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 287 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $240 in the last 2 years and $300 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 4 / 10 build. 167 developers shipped in the last year and 287 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 45% on the market, 287 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arcade + Aliens
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 297
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $239 → $359 → $598 → $505 → $150 → $449 → $269 (still earning) → $75 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arcade + Aliens: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 297
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $240 (exactly $240)
Top 25% $1.8k (exactly $1,796)
Top 5% $27k (exactly $26,618)
Developers, 2 yr 297
Released games 892
Announced 287
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Aliens
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Arcade; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Shoot 'Em Up
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Retro
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 79,409 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $240, 1 in 4 over $1.7k, 1 in 20 over $26k.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. 9 in 10 of the 146 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 287 games are announced against 167 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arcade with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair59 devs · median $4.3k · 88 announced
  2. + TrainsFair20 devs · median $3.1k · 16 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair101 devs · median $2.6k · 84 announced
  4. + MiningFair91 devs · median $2.2k · 125 announced
  5. + FaithFair16 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  6. + Turn-BasedFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  7. + EconomyFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair72 devs · median $2.1k · 61 announced
  9. + DeckbuildingFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair68 devs · median $1.9k · 75 announced
  11. + LootFair147 devs · median $1.9k · 215 announced
  12. + VampiresFair34 devs · median $1.9k · 35 announced

All 270 pairs on the Arcade page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Starship Troopers: Extermination $29.99 29,724 80% 892k $27M (exactly $26,742,683) Offworld
Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor $12.99 46,354 86% 1.4M $18M (exactly $18,064,154) Funday Games
EARTH DEFENSE FORCE 6 older $59.99 6,225 69% 187k $11M (exactly $11,203,132) SANDLOT
Contra: Operation Galuga older $39.99 810 87% 24k $972k (exactly $971,757) WayForward
Alien Hominid Invasion older $19.99 1,572 88% 47k $943k (exactly $942,728) The Behemoth
Alien Rage - Unlimited older $19.99 1,441 69% 43k $864k (exactly $864,168) CI Games
Alien Shooter older $4.99 3,919 95% 118k $587k (exactly $586,674) Sigma Team Inc.
Star Fire: Eternal Cycle $16.99 1,012 91% 30k $516k (exactly $515,816) Ethereal Fish Studio
Halo: Spartan Assault older $2.99 4,397 78% 132k $394k (exactly $394,411) Vanguard Games, 343 Industries
Viscerafest $19.99 540 87% 16k $324k (exactly $323,838) Acid Man Games, Fire Plant Games
YOU ARE THE MONSTER · EA $9.99 488 69% 15k $146k (exactly $146,254) Joshua Hughes
Void Miner – Incremental Asteroids Roguelite $5.99 698 83% 21k $125k (exactly $125,431) RyanJakob
Starbreed $10.99 271 95% 8.1k $89k (exactly $89,349) RegulusNSFW
MARVEL MaXimum Collection $24.99 111 76% 3.3k $83k (exactly $83,217) Limited Run Games
閃攻機人アスラ - ASURA THE STRIKER - $14.99 145 91% 4.4k $65k (exactly $65,206) LeftOver
Raiden NOVA | 雷電NOVA | 雷電新星 $29.99 66 72% 2.0k $59k (exactly $59,380) MOSS Co., Ltd.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.