Do I ship it?

GamesTransportationTransportation + Adventure

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Adventure Transportation game?

Transportation + Adventure

Of 43 developers who shipped an Adventure Transportation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 69 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.5k, ×7.2 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $960; 1 in 20 cleared $2.7M, ×4449 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 69 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 69 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Transportation + Adventure
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 43
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $29k → $5.4k → $12k → $839 → $135k → $4.5k → $4.3k (still earning) → $1.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Transportation + Adventure: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 43
Bottom 30% $959 (exactly $959)
Median $4.5k (exactly $4,496)
Top 25% $74k (exactly $73,751)
Top 5% $2.8M (exactly $2,794,103)
Developers, 2 yr 43
Released games 108
Announced 69
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Transportation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Transportation, Adventure; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Exploration, Immersive Sim
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, First-Person, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 30,779 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $960, median $4.5k, 1 in 4 over $73k, 1 in 20 over $2.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $960. 6 in 10 of the 22 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 69 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Transportation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Character CustomizationFair19 devs · median $7.2k · 24 announced
  2. + PvPFair10 devs · median $5.7k · 11 announced
  3. + 3D PlatformerFair13 devs · median $3.1k · 12 announced
  4. + RacingFair39 devs · median $2.3k · 35 announced
  5. + Action-AdventureFair21 devs · median $2.3k · 22 announced
  6. + LogicFair29 devs · median $1.7k · 30 announced
  7. + ArcadeFair37 devs · median $839 · 32 announced
  8. + IdlerFair15 devs · median $747 · 20 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds17 devs · median $369k · 25 announced
  10. + Online Co-OpPoor odds14 devs · median $369k · 25 announced
  11. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $43k · 17 announced
  12. + Life SimPoor odds24 devs · median $27k · 48 announced

All 53 pairs on the Transportation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Euro Truck Simulator 2 older $19.99 756,984 97% 23M $454M (exactly $453,963,305) SCS Software
American Truck Simulator older $19.99 165,692 97% 5.0M $99M (exactly $99,365,492) SCS Software
Pacific Drive older $29.99 21,547 83% 646k $19M (exactly $19,385,836) Ironwood Studios
Train Simulator Classic older $29.99 19,461 73% 584k $18M (exactly $17,509,062) Dovetail Games
RoadCraft $39.99 13,527 74% 406k $16M (exactly $16,228,342) Saber Interactive
Derail Valley · EA older $39.99 9,442 96% 283k $11M (exactly $11,327,567) Altfuture
Transport Fever older $29.99 9,278 82% 278k $8.3M (exactly $8,347,417) Urban Games
OMSI 2: Steam Edition older $29.99 8,586 84% 258k $7.7M (exactly $7,724,824) MR-Software GbR
Train Sim World® 2 older $19.99 7,066 82% 212k $4.2M (exactly $4,237,480) Dovetail Games
Star Trucker older $24.99 4,928 77% 148k $3.7M (exactly $3,694,522) Monster and Monster
Train Sim World® 5 $39.99 3,028 80% 91k $3.6M (exactly $3,632,692) Dovetail Games
Aviassembly · EA $9.99 9,323 96% 280k $2.8M (exactly $2,794,103) Jelle Booij
The Legend of Khiimori · EA $29.99 1,929 82% 58k $1.7M (exactly $1,735,521) Aesir Interactive, NightinGames
Outbreak Island · EA $14.99 955 78% 29k $429k (exactly $429,464) Tiny Magicians
Back in Service: a Metro Driver · EA $18.99 448 97% 13k $255k (exactly $255,226) Dominik Vojta
Lakehopper · EA $9.99 479 88% 14k $144k (exactly $143,556) Photon Games
A Merchant's Promise · EA $14.99 300 86% 9.0k $135k (exactly $134,910) Game Draft Studio
Big Rigs: Over the Road Racing $5.99 640 79% 19k $115k (exactly $115,008) Stellar Stone
Truck Mechanic: Dangerous Paths $19.99 150 60% 4.5k $90k (exactly $89,955) Atomic Jelly

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.