Do I ship it?

GamesDestructionDestruction + Adventure

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Adventure Destruction game?

Destruction + Adventure

Of 116 developers who shipped an Adventure Destruction game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 282 more are announced, ×4.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $610k, ×977 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 282 games are announced against 63 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 282 announced, ×4.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Destruction + Adventure
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 116
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.6k → $5.2k → $1.5k → $2.9k → $1.4k → $1.5k → $359 (still earning) → $1.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Destruction + Adventure: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 116
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $898 (exactly $898)
Top 25% $10k (exactly $10,195)
Top 5% $614k (exactly $613,792)
Developers, 2 yr 116
Released games 397
Announced 282
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Destruction
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Destruction, Adventure; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Action, Physics
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 40,257 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $900, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $610k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 66 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 282 games are announced against 63 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Destruction with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Space SimFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 22 announced
  2. + ModernFair26 devs · median $1.6k · 28 announced
  3. + God GameFair19 devs · median $899 · 20 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair9 devs · median $719 · 14 announced
  5. + Hack and SlashPoor odds19 devs · median $43k · 57 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds15 devs · median $26k · 22 announced
  7. + CapitalismPoor odds17 devs · median $15k · 46 announced
  8. + Online Co-OpPoor odds37 devs · median $13k · 102 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds50 devs · median $11k · 113 announced
  10. + Automobile SimPoor odds22 devs · median $9.0k · 44 announced
  11. + ManagementPoor odds36 devs · median $6.1k · 129 announced
  12. + AutomationPoor odds22 devs · median $6.0k · 46 announced

All 139 pairs on the Destruction page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Battlefield™ 2042 older $59.99 260,308 49% 7.8M $468M (exactly $468,476,308) DICE
BeamNG.drive · EA older $24.99 388,236 97% 12M $291M (exactly $291,060,529) BeamNG
Need for Speed™ Heat older $69.99 128,933 84% 3.9M $271M (exactly $270,720,620) Ghost Games
Just Cause™ 3 older $19.99 104,140 85% 3.1M $62M (exactly $62,452,758) Avalanche Studios
Men of War: Assault Squad 2 older $29.99 35,744 91% 1.1M $32M (exactly $32,158,877) Digitalmindsoft
Just Cause 4 Reloaded older $39.64 23,358 63% 701k $28M (exactly $27,777,334) Avalanche Studios
Need for Speed™ older $29.99 25,443 69% 763k $23M (exactly $22,891,067) Ghost Games
Just Cause 2 older $14.99 41,019 90% 1.2M $18M (exactly $18,446,244) Avalanche Studios
RoadCraft $39.99 13,527 74% 406k $16M (exactly $16,228,342) Saber Interactive
Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance older $59.99 7,858 91% 236k $14M (exactly $14,142,043) ATLUS
Echo Point Nova $24.99 7,521 96% 226k $5.6M (exactly $5,638,494) Greylock Studio
Aviassembly · EA $9.99 9,323 96% 280k $2.8M (exactly $2,794,103) Jelle Booij
Everwind · EA $24.99 3,454 81% 104k $2.6M (exactly $2,589,464) Enjoy Studio S.A.
Lay of the Land $19.99 1,190 79% 36k $714k (exactly $713,643) Southern Cross Interactive
Keep Digging $6.99 2,927 79% 88k $614k (exactly $613,792) Wild Dog
Bionic Bay $19.99 750 84% 23k $450k (exactly $449,775) Psychoflow Studio, Mureena Oy
Galactic Glitch $12.99 920 89% 28k $359k (exactly $358,524) Crunchy Leaf Games
Deliver At All Costs $29.99 320 73% 9.6k $288k (exactly $287,904) Studio Far Out Games
Voxel Project VR $24.99 325 84% 9.8k $244k (exactly $243,652) 180°

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.