Do I ship it?

GamesAction RoguelikeAction Roguelike + Tower Defense

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Tower Defense Action Roguelike?

Action Roguelike + Tower Defense

Of 142 developers who shipped a Tower Defense Action Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 218 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $130k, ×289 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 218 games are announced against 91 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 218 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action Roguelike + Tower Defense
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 142
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.3k → $1.9k → $1.1k → $2.6k → $2.0k → $1.4k → $1.2k (still earning) → $240 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action Roguelike + Tower Defense: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 142
Bottom 30% $240 (exactly $240)
Median $718 (exactly $718)
Top 25% $4.5k (exactly $4,496)
Top 5% $137k (exactly $137,405)
Developers, 2 yr 142
Released games 274
Announced 218
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action Roguelike
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Tower Defense
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Action Roguelike, Tower Defense; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Strategy, Roguelike
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 11,378 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $720, 1 in 4 over $4.4k, 1 in 20 over $130k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 59 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 218 games are announced against 91 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action Roguelike with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomanceStrong odds22 devs · median $6.5k · 17 announced
  2. + Creature CollectorFair39 devs · median $1.8k · 54 announced
  3. + SportsFair41 devs · median $1.6k · 39 announced
  4. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 19 announced
  5. + VampiresFair55 devs · median $1.3k · 52 announced
  6. + IdlerFair44 devs · median $1.0k · 55 announced
  7. + DogsFair19 devs · median $899 · 18 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerFair36 devs · median $629 · 38 announced
  9. + FaithFair16 devs · median $449 · 21 announced
  10. + Character Action GamePoor odds9 devs · median $20k · 40 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $12k · 14 announced
  12. + MechsPoor odds44 devs · median $12k · 85 announced

All 205 pairs on the Action Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cultivation Tales older $19.99 12,560 38% 377k $7.5M (exactly $7,532,232) Ac Games
Bad North: Jotunn Edition older $14.99 12,344 93% 370k $5.6M (exactly $5,551,097) Plausible Concept, Oskar Stålberg
Orcs Must Die! Deathtrap $29.99 4,053 69% 122k $3.6M (exactly $3,646,484) Robot Entertainment
ENDLESS Dungeon™ - Definitive Edition older $14.99 2,953 64% 89k $1.3M (exactly $1,327,964) AMPLITUDE Studios
Marfusha:Sentinel Girls older $7.99 3,116 93% 93k $747k (exactly $746,905) hinyari9
Monsters are Coming! $8.99 2,718 79% 82k $733k (exactly $733,045) Ludogram
Lumencraft older $19.99 1,086 75% 33k $651k (exactly $651,274) 2Dynamic Games
Glory & Miserable Survivors DX older $9.99 1,488 88% 45k $446k (exactly $445,954) TLACHTLI
Necrosmith older $2.99 4,885 85% 147k $438k (exactly $438,185) Alawar
Achilles: Survivor $8.99 1,454 81% 44k $392k (exactly $392,144) Dark Point Games
Sineus Arena Survivors $10.99 1,150 77% 35k $379k (exactly $379,155) Sineus Games
Descenders Next · EA $29.99 389 79% 12k $350k (exactly $349,983) RageSquid
The Ember Guardian $19.99 278 82% 8.3k $167k (exactly $166,717) Ratbit Games
Grit and Valor - 1949 $19.99 274 75% 8.2k $164k (exactly $164,318) Milky Tea Studios
WAR RATS: The Rat em Up $11.99 382 95% 11k $137k (exactly $137,405) wootusart Industries
SHOOPER NOVA $6.99 545 83% 16k $114k (exactly $114,286) Jamesika
Keep Keepers $17.99 135 87% 4.1k $73k (exactly $72,860) Thunderrock Innovations

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.