Do I ship it?

Games › Action Roguelike › Action Roguelike + Shoot 'Em Up

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Shoot 'Em Up Action Roguelike?

Action Roguelike + Shoot 'Em Up

Of 364 developers who shipped a Shoot 'Em Up Action Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 435 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $960, ×2.0 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $110k, ×241 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 435 games are announced against 205 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 435 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action Roguelike + Shoot 'Em Up
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 364
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.9k → $2.2k → $1.5k → $3.6k → $2.3k → $719 → $802 (still earning) → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action Roguelike + Shoot 'Em Up: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 364
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $959 (exactly $959)
Top 25% $5.8k (exactly $5,846)
Top 5% $114k (exactly $114,286)
Developers, 2 yr 364
Released games 886
Announced 435
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action Roguelike
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Shoot 'Em Up
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Action Roguelike, Shoot 'Em Up; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Bullet Hell, Roguelite
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Top-Down, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 37,147 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $960, 1 in 4 over $5.8k, 1 in 20 over $110k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 177 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 435 games are announced against 205 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action Roguelike with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomanceStrong odds22 devs · median $6.5k · 17 announced
  2. + Creature CollectorFair39 devs · median $1.8k · 54 announced
  3. + SportsFair41 devs · median $1.6k · 39 announced
  4. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 19 announced
  5. + VampiresFair55 devs · median $1.3k · 52 announced
  6. + IdlerFair44 devs · median $1.0k · 55 announced
  7. + DogsFair19 devs · median $899 · 18 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerFair36 devs · median $629 · 38 announced
  9. + FaithFair16 devs · median $449 · 21 announced
  10. + Character Action GamePoor odds9 devs · median $20k · 40 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $12k · 14 announced
  12. + MechsPoor odds44 devs · median $12k · 85 announced

All 205 pairs on the Action Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

BALL x PIT 2025 · $11M Nova Drift 2024 · $7.0M 20 Minutes Till Dawn 2023 · $4.2M Dead Estate 2021 · $2.6M OTXO 2023 · $1.5M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
BALL x PIT $14.99 24,714 95% 741k $11M (exactly $11,113,886) Kenny Sun and Friends
Nova Drift older $17.99 12,975 95% 389k $7.0M (exactly $7,002,607) Chimeric
20 Minutes Till Dawn older $4.99 27,872 90% 836k $4.2M (exactly $4,172,438) flanne
Dead Estate older $14.99 5,778 95% 173k $2.6M (exactly $2,598,367) Milkbar Lads
OTXO older $14.99 3,303 93% 99k $1.5M (exactly $1,485,359) Lateralis Heavy Industries
Star of Providence older $14.99 3,178 96% 95k $1.4M (exactly $1,429,147) Team D-13
Apocalypse Party older $9.99 4,658 72% 140k $1.4M (exactly $1,396,003) Breaker Games
R.I.P. - Reincarnation Insurance Program $14.99 2,727 76% 82k $1.2M (exactly $1,226,332) WarmCore Studio
ROBOBEAT older $19.99 1,708 94% 51k $1.0M (exactly $1,024,288) Simon Fredholm
Juicy Realm older $9.99 3,269 87% 98k $980k (exactly $979,719) SpaceCan
Bloodshed $12.99 1,824 84% 55k $711k (exactly $710,813) com8com1 Software
I Am Legion: Stand Survivors $8.99 2,432 82% 73k $656k (exactly $655,910) JA Game Studio
Reality Break $24.99 683 80% 20k $512k (exactly $512,045) Element Games, LLC
HUNTDOWN: OVERTIME · EA $16.99 830 88% 25k $423k (exactly $423,051) Easy Trigger Games
ODDCORE · EA $12.99 1,080 96% 32k $421k (exactly $420,876) ODDCORP
Sektori $14.99 897 96% 27k $403k (exactly $403,381) Kimmo Lahtinen
Whisker Squadron: Survivor $19.99 485 77% 15k $291k (exactly $290,854) Flippfly LLC
Talented $5.99 1,475 91% 44k $265k (exactly $265,058) TurtleFox Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.