Do I ship it?

GamesAction RoguelikeAction Roguelike + Psychological Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Psychological-Horror Action Roguelike?

Action Roguelike + Psychological Horror

Of 66 developers who shipped a Psychological-Horror Action Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 128 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×4.0 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $180k, ×384 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 128 games are announced against 44 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 128 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action Roguelike + Psychological Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 66
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.0k → $5.7k → $8.9k → $8.2k → $8.4k → $4.8k → $449 (still earning) → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action Roguelike + Psychological Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 66
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,919)
Top 25% $20k (exactly $19,793)
Top 5% $182k (exactly $182,218)
Developers, 2 yr 66
Released games 141
Announced 128
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action Roguelike
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Psychological Horror
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Action Roguelike; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Survival Horror, Adventure
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 9,738 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $19k, 1 in 20 over $180k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 25 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 128 games are announced against 44 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action Roguelike with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomanceStrong odds22 devs · median $6.5k · 17 announced
  2. + Creature CollectorFair39 devs · median $1.8k · 54 announced
  3. + SportsFair41 devs · median $1.6k · 39 announced
  4. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 19 announced
  5. + VampiresFair55 devs · median $1.3k · 52 announced
  6. + IdlerFair44 devs · median $1.0k · 55 announced
  7. + DogsFair19 devs · median $899 · 18 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerFair36 devs · median $629 · 38 announced
  9. + FaithFair16 devs · median $449 · 21 announced
  10. + Character Action GamePoor odds9 devs · median $20k · 40 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $12k · 14 announced
  12. + MechsPoor odds44 devs · median $12k · 85 announced

All 205 pairs on the Action Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Content Warning older $7.99 72,444 93% 2.2M $17M (exactly $17,364,827) Zorro, Wilnyl, Philip, thePetHen, Skog
Returnal™ older $59.99 6,602 79% 198k $12M (exactly $11,881,619) Housemarque, Climax Studios
PANICORE older $9.99 10,748 78% 322k $3.2M (exactly $3,221,176) ZTEK Studio
Monstrum older $17.99 3,155 91% 95k $1.7M (exactly $1,702,753) Team Junkfish
Nunholy $7.99 5,150 88% 155k $1.2M (exactly $1,234,455) Chowbie
BELOW older $24.99 1,304 70% 39k $978k (exactly $977,609) Capybara Games
ALTF4 older $2.99 9,452 80% 284k $848k (exactly $847,844) PUMPKIM
Picayune Dreams older $4.99 4,164 98% 125k $623k (exactly $623,351) Stepford, Andyland, milkypossum
ORDER 13 $8.99 1,224 87% 37k $330k (exactly $330,113) Cybernetic Walrus
PUSS! older $9.99 1,062 92% 32k $318k (exactly $318,281) teamcoil
CRYO · EA $14.99 435 86% 13k $196k (exactly $195,620) Valko Game Studios
It Has My Face $9.99 608 88% 18k $182k (exactly $182,218) NightByte Games
Bendy: Lone Wolf $19.99 259 77% 7.8k $155k (exactly $155,322) Joey Drew Studios
Happy's Humble Burger Cult $9.99 477 86% 14k $143k (exactly $142,957) Scythe Dev Team
CAPTURED 2 $7.99 564 99% 17k $135k (exactly $135,191) Puck Redflix
Cursed Companions $8.99 345 79% 10k $93k (exactly $93,046) Crimson Forge Studios
Last Pirates: Die Together · EA $7.99 325 76% 9.8k $78k (exactly $77,902) RetroStyle Games
Super Drift Blade $6.99 351 94% 11k $74k (exactly $73,605) Liujiajun

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.