Do I ship it?

GamesAction RoguelikeAction Roguelike + Naval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Naval Action Roguelike?

Action Roguelike + Naval

Only 12 developers shipped a Naval Action Roguelike in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Curse of Pirates, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 18 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $700, ×1.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $36k, ×58 the market median. Revenue is up 1055% on the market; 18 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 1055% on the market, 18 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action Roguelike + Naval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Action Roguelike + Naval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $700 (exactly $700)
Top 25% $4.0k (exactly $3,979)
Top 5% $36k (exactly $36,264)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 29
Announced 18
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1055% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action Roguelike
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Naval
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Action Roguelike
Price point
$5.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 235 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $700, 1 in 4 over $3.9k, 1 in 20 over $36k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 18 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action Roguelike with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomanceStrong odds22 devs · median $6.5k · 17 announced
  2. + Creature CollectorFair39 devs · median $1.8k · 54 announced
  3. + SportsFair41 devs · median $1.6k · 39 announced
  4. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 19 announced
  5. + VampiresFair55 devs · median $1.3k · 52 announced
  6. + IdlerFair44 devs · median $1.0k · 55 announced
  7. + DogsFair19 devs · median $899 · 18 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerFair36 devs · median $629 · 38 announced
  9. + FaithFair16 devs · median $449 · 21 announced
  10. + Character Action GamePoor odds9 devs · median $20k · 40 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $12k · 14 announced
  12. + MechsPoor odds44 devs · median $12k · 85 announced

All 205 pairs on the Action Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Ship of Fools older $21.99 5,040 82% 151k $3.3M (exactly $3,324,888) Fika Productions
Pixel Piracy older $14.99 5,713 65% 171k $2.6M (exactly $2,569,136) Vitali Kirpu
King of Seas older $24.99 603 57% 18k $452k (exactly $452,069) 3DClouds
Cursed Crew · EA older $20.00 70 80% 2.1k $42k (exactly $42,000) Cracklewock Games
Curse of Pirates $9.99 121 80% 3.6k $36k (exactly $36,264) Funky Parrot
Captains of the Wacky Waters older $19.99 20 95% 600 $12k (exactly $11,994) Ceiling Games
Fluffy Sailors $12.99 29 79% 870 $11k (exactly $11,301) Skaldery Games
Swords and Sandals Pirates older $6.99 45 68% 1.4k $9.4k (exactly $9,436) Whiskeybarrel Studios
Maritime Calling older $7.99 31 51% 930 $7.4k (exactly $7,431) Tiamat Games
Ruiga Pirates · EA older $4.99 38 57% 1.1k $5.7k (exactly $5,689) Valentware Games LTD
Ocean Survivors $3.49 38 97% 1.1k $4.0k (exactly $3,979) Aremji Games
Hentai Pirates Survivors $4.99 24 91% 720 $3.6k (exactly $3,593) Pinky Pads
Kamikaze Survivors $9.99 9 77% 270 $2.7k (exactly $2,697) DaboSoft
Pirate Twist · EA $4.67 5 100% 150 $700 (exactly $700) BTG Labs
Hullbreaker · EA $6.99 2 100% 60 $419 (exactly $419) Dalton
Moby Click $3.99 3 33% 90 $359 (exactly $359) Drew VanWagner
DEEP DIVER · EA $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) PEGAX Studios
Pirates of Gravitae $2.99 3 100% 90 $269 (exactly $269) Innerverse Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.