Do I ship it?

GamesAction RoguelikeAction Roguelike + Multiple Endings

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Multiple Endings Action Roguelike?

Action Roguelike + Multiple Endings

Of 85 developers who shipped a Multiple Endings Action Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 178 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×3.2 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $260k, ×561 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 178 games are announced against 45 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 178 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action Roguelike + Multiple Endings
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 85
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $359 → $599 → $12k → $12k → $2.0k → $1.7k → $2.2k (still earning) → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action Roguelike + Multiple Endings: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 85
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,498)
Top 25% $22k (exactly $22,128)
Top 5% $266k (exactly $266,267)
Developers, 2 yr 85
Released games 198
Announced 178
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action Roguelike
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Multiple Endings
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Action Roguelike, Multiple Endings; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Roguelike, Adventure
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $18.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $18.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 8,090 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $22k, 1 in 20 over $260k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 7 in 10 of the 43 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 178 games are announced against 45 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action Roguelike with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomanceStrong odds22 devs · median $6.5k · 17 announced
  2. + Creature CollectorFair39 devs · median $1.8k · 54 announced
  3. + SportsFair41 devs · median $1.6k · 39 announced
  4. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 19 announced
  5. + VampiresFair55 devs · median $1.3k · 52 announced
  6. + IdlerFair44 devs · median $1.0k · 55 announced
  7. + DogsFair19 devs · median $899 · 18 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerFair36 devs · median $629 · 38 announced
  9. + FaithFair16 devs · median $449 · 21 announced
  10. + Character Action GamePoor odds9 devs · median $20k · 40 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $12k · 14 announced
  12. + MechsPoor odds44 devs · median $12k · 85 announced

All 205 pairs on the Action Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
暖雪 Warm Snow older $17.99 35,270 92% 1.1M $19M (exactly $19,035,219) BadMudStudio
BlazBlue Entropy Effect older $19.99 30,410 94% 912k $18M (exactly $18,236,877) 91Act
Lost Castle / 失落城堡 older $9.99 18,417 87% 553k $5.5M (exactly $5,519,575) Hunter Studio
Anomaly Agent older $11.99 9,463 94% 284k $3.4M (exactly $3,403,841) Phew Phew Games
Chinese Online Game older $9.99 6,610 82% 198k $2.0M (exactly $1,981,017) 648工作室
Moon Hunters older $14.99 3,919 79% 118k $1.8M (exactly $1,762,374) Kitfox Games
Five Hearts Under One Roof season2 $22.99 2,149 96% 64k $1.5M (exactly $1,482,165) Storytaco
Blade Assault older $17.99 1,816 74% 54k $980k (exactly $980,095) TeamSuneat
Genesis Alpha One Deluxe Edition older $19.99 1,566 73% 47k $939k (exactly $939,130) Radiation Blue
METALLIC CHILD older $24.99 1,131 84% 34k $848k (exactly $847,911) Action Square(STUDIO HG)
Demon Lord: Just a Block $12.99 2,065 96% 62k $805k (exactly $804,730) YuWave
Dungeons of Blood and Dream $18.99 1,173 93% 35k $668k (exactly $668,258) Lori Vornoy
Million Depth $16.99 673 93% 20k $343k (exactly $343,028) Cyber Space Biotope
Echoes of Yi : Samsara $19.99 444 67% 13k $266k (exactly $266,267) Runmeng
CRYO · EA $14.99 435 86% 13k $196k (exactly $195,620) Valko Game Studios
Poetry of Blood: Eclipse · EA $14.99 406 91% 12k $183k (exactly $182,578) ZeroGameStudio
Mark of the Deep $19.99 229 73% 6.9k $137k (exactly $137,331) Mad Mimic
生嚿叉燒好過生你 $14.99 284 88% 8.5k $128k (exactly $127,715) 無厘頭遊戲工作室
Sin and Love $14.99 232 65% 7.0k $104k (exactly $104,330) XingCaiStudio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.