Do I ship it?

GamesAction RoguelikeAction Roguelike + Metroidvania

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Metroidvania Action Roguelike?

Action Roguelike + Metroidvania

Of 38 developers who shipped a Metroidvania Action Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 82 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×3.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $310k, ×655 the market median. Revenue is up 365% on the market; 82 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 365% on the market, 82 announced, ×4.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action Roguelike + Metroidvania
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 38
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $925k → $413k → $12k → $6.2k → $1.5k → $1.5k → $2.6k (still earning) → $450 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action Roguelike + Metroidvania: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 38
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,556)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $12,142)
Top 5% $311k (exactly $311,192)
Developers, 2 yr 38
Released games 112
Announced 82
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 365% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action Roguelike
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Metroidvania
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Action Roguelike, Metroidvania; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Roguelike, Adventure
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Difficult
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 11,202 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $310k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 9 in 10 of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 82 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action Roguelike with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomanceStrong odds22 devs · median $6.5k · 17 announced
  2. + Creature CollectorFair39 devs · median $1.8k · 54 announced
  3. + SportsFair41 devs · median $1.6k · 39 announced
  4. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 19 announced
  5. + VampiresFair55 devs · median $1.3k · 52 announced
  6. + IdlerFair44 devs · median $1.0k · 55 announced
  7. + DogsFair19 devs · median $899 · 18 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerFair36 devs · median $629 · 38 announced
  9. + FaithFair16 devs · median $449 · 21 announced
  10. + Character Action GamePoor odds9 devs · median $20k · 40 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $12k · 14 announced
  12. + MechsPoor odds44 devs · median $12k · 85 announced

All 205 pairs on the Action Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dead Cells older $24.99 156,263 97% 4.7M $117M (exactly $117,150,371) Motion Twin
Skul: The Hero Slayer older $19.99 50,801 93% 1.5M $30M (exactly $30,465,360) SOUTHPAW GAMES
Rogue Legacy 2 older $24.99 14,238 90% 427k $11M (exactly $10,674,229) Cellar Door Games
Have a Nice Death older $24.99 9,729 85% 292k $7.3M (exactly $7,293,831) Magic Design Studios
Rogue Legacy older $14.99 15,877 92% 476k $7.1M (exactly $7,139,887) Cellar Door Games
Windblown · EA $24.99 9,066 88% 272k $6.8M (exactly $6,796,780) Motion Twin
Dungreed older $9.99 8,988 93% 270k $2.7M (exactly $2,693,704) TEAM HORAY
Sundered®: Eldritch Edition older $19.99 4,094 81% 123k $2.5M (exactly $2,455,172) Thunder Lotus
Vagante older $14.99 4,118 90% 124k $1.9M (exactly $1,851,865) Nuke Nine
9 Years of Shadows older $19.99 2,291 79% 69k $1.4M (exactly $1,373,913) Halberd Studios
Dunjungle $14.99 692 96% 21k $311k (exactly $311,192) Bruno Bombardi
Never Grave: The Witch and The Curse $16.99 543 72% 16k $277k (exactly $276,767) Frontside 180
HOTEL BARCELONA $29.99 269 71% 8.1k $242k (exactly $242,019) White Owls Inc.
Mark of the Deep $19.99 229 73% 6.9k $137k (exactly $137,331) Mad Mimic
Kromlech · EA $29.99 136 65% 4.1k $122k (exactly $122,359) Perun Creative
Aura of Worlds $14.99 101 96% 3.0k $45k (exactly $45,420) Cognitive Forge
An Amazing Wizard · EA $11.99 98 83% 2.9k $35k (exactly $35,251) Tiny Goblins
face the immortal · EA $17.99 41 92% 1.2k $22k (exactly $22,128) DY
Rusty Rangers $14.99 27 88% 810 $12k (exactly $12,142) Fantastica!

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.