Do I ship it?

GamesAction RoguelikeAction Roguelike + Historical

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Historical Action Roguelike?

Action Roguelike + Historical

Of 35 developers who shipped a Historical Action Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 60 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×2.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $180k, ×301 the market median. Revenue is up 80% on the market; 60 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 60 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action Roguelike + Historical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 35
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.6k → $59 → $3.0k → $1.9k → $2.8k → $1.0k → $12k (still earning) → $1.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action Roguelike + Historical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 35
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,618)
Top 25% $7.1k (exactly $7,130)
Top 5% $189k (exactly $188,842)
Developers, 2 yr 35
Released games 84
Announced 60
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action Roguelike
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Historical
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Action Roguelike; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Roguelite, Hack and Slash
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Top-Down, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 3,163 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $7.1k, 1 in 20 over $180k.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 9 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 60 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action Roguelike with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomanceStrong odds22 devs · median $6.5k · 17 announced
  2. + Creature CollectorFair39 devs · median $1.8k · 54 announced
  3. + SportsFair41 devs · median $1.6k · 39 announced
  4. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 19 announced
  5. + VampiresFair55 devs · median $1.3k · 52 announced
  6. + IdlerFair44 devs · median $1.0k · 55 announced
  7. + DogsFair19 devs · median $899 · 18 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerFair36 devs · median $629 · 38 announced
  9. + FaithFair16 devs · median $449 · 21 announced
  10. + Character Action GamePoor odds9 devs · median $20k · 40 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $12k · 14 announced
  12. + MechsPoor odds44 devs · median $12k · 85 announced

All 205 pairs on the Action Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
We Who Are About To Die · EA older $21.99 8,134 88% 244k $5.4M (exactly $5,366,000) Jordy Lakiere
Medal of Honor™: Above and Beyond older $39.99 2,466 65% 74k $3.0M (exactly $2,958,460) Respawn Entertainment
WARRIORS: Abyss $24.99 2,015 85% 60k $1.5M (exactly $1,510,646) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Multi Turret Academy · EA older $8.99 1,778 95% 53k $480k (exactly $479,527) Yulia Games
下一站江湖Ⅰ older $19.99 581 72% 17k $348k (exactly $348,426) 白玉京工作室
Fate Seeker: Journey older $10.00 1,105 77% 33k $332k (exactly $331,500) JSL Entertainment
Samurai Bringer older $9.99 1,012 87% 30k $303k (exactly $303,296) ALPHAWING Inc.
Mirror of Heaven older $9.25 995 79% 30k $276k (exactly $276,112) EnjoyPlay Ltd
Okhlos: Omega older $12.99 633 78% 19k $247k (exactly $246,680) Coffee Powered Machine
Warlords Battleground: Extraction $11.99 525 84% 16k $189k (exactly $188,842) 绝汪
Grit and Valor - 1949 $19.99 274 75% 8.2k $164k (exactly $164,318) Milky Tea Studios
HYAKKI YAKO Survivor $7.99 84 67% 2.5k $20k (exactly $20,135) pixyda,inc.
Banner of Conquest $4.99 89 65% 2.7k $13k (exactly $13,323) Haojoy Game
River City Saga: Journey to the West $19.99 20 65% 600 $12k (exactly $11,994) Arc System Works, UnitePlus
Swamp Keeper $3.99 82 96% 2.5k $9.8k (exactly $9,815) Maetdol Games
Derby Heroines: Run, Bet, Win! $14.99 17 94% 510 $7.6k (exactly $7,645) SHINISE GAMES, MFC STUDIO
Pass Tiger Cage · EA $6.99 34 61% 1.0k $7.1k (exactly $7,130) 中军MT
Turmoil Uprising: Dynasty $9.99 23 82% 690 $6.9k (exactly $6,893) Miya

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.