Do I ship it?

Games › Action Roguelike › Action Roguelike + Choose Your Own Adventure

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choose Your Own Adventure Action Roguelike?

Action Roguelike + Choose Your Own Adventure

Of 29 developers who shipped a Choose Your Own Adventure Action Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 65 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450 in the last 2 years and $360 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 4 / 10 build. 21 developers shipped in the last year and 65 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 15% on the market, 65 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action Roguelike + Choose Your Own Adventure
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 29
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $238 → $1.1k → $478 → $240 → $1.3k → $716 → $2.4k (still earning) → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action Roguelike + Choose Your Own Adventure: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 29
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $4.3k (exactly $4,286)
Top 5% $1.0M (exactly $1,025,766)
Developers, 2 yr 29
Released games 95
Announced 65
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 15% on the market, supply 165% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action Roguelike
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Choose Your Own Adventure
effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Action Roguelike, Choose Your Own Adventure; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, RPG, Roguelike
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $22.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Emotional, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $22.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 5,785 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $450, 1 in 4 over $4.2k, 1 in 20 over $1.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 65 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action Roguelike with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomanceStrong odds22 devs · median $6.5k · 17 announced
  2. + Creature CollectorFair39 devs · median $1.8k · 54 announced
  3. + SportsFair41 devs · median $1.6k · 39 announced
  4. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 19 announced
  5. + VampiresFair55 devs · median $1.3k · 52 announced
  6. + IdlerFair44 devs · median $1.0k · 55 announced
  7. + DogsFair19 devs · median $899 · 18 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerFair36 devs · median $629 · 38 announced
  9. + FaithFair16 devs · median $449 · 21 announced
  10. + Character Action GamePoor odds9 devs · median $20k · 40 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $12k · 14 announced
  12. + MechsPoor odds44 devs · median $12k · 85 announced

All 205 pairs on the Action Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Hand of Fate 2015 · $4.8M Pixel Piracy 2014 · $2.6M Five Hearts Under One Roof season2 2025 · $1.5M Lucky Tower Ultimate 2026 · $1.0M ALTF4 2021 · $848k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hand of Fate older $19.99 8,009 89% 240k $4.8M (exactly $4,802,997) Defiant Development
Pixel Piracy older $14.99 5,713 65% 171k $2.6M (exactly $2,569,136) Vitali Kirpu
Five Hearts Under One Roof season2 $22.99 2,149 96% 64k $1.5M (exactly $1,482,165) Storytaco
Lucky Tower Ultimate $14.99 2,281 94% 68k $1.0M (exactly $1,025,766) Studio Seufz
ALTF4 older $2.99 9,452 80% 284k $848k (exactly $847,844) PUMPKIM
Heading Out older $19.99 639 74% 19k $383k (exactly $383,208) Serious Sim, Crunching Koalas
Fictorum older $9.99 1,034 78% 31k $310k (exactly $309,890) Scraping Bottom Games
Guidus Zero $14.99 609 75% 18k $274k (exactly $273,867) izzle
Kromlech · EA $29.99 136 65% 4.1k $122k (exactly $122,359) Perun Creative
That Time I Got Reincarnated as a Demon Hand $9.99 375 84% 11k $112k (exactly $112,388) Tora Creatives
Femboy Survival · EA $6.99 133 92% 4.0k $28k (exactly $27,890) 2DNiem
Ragnar $14.99 61 83% 1.8k $27k (exactly $27,432) Fimbulwinter Games
ZOMBIE NTR APOCALYPSE $10.99 13 69% 390 $4.3k (exactly $4,286) RaigenGames
Forsaken Valley $9.99 12 91% 360 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) KineticFox
Aevalore $4.99 16 81% 480 $2.4k (exactly $2,395) Aevalore

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.