Do I ship it?

Games2D Fighter2D Fighter + Sci-fi

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sci-fi 2D Fighter?

2D Fighter + Sci-fi

Of 62 developers who shipped a Sci-fi 2D Fighter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 112 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $180 in the last 2 years and $240 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 38 developers shipped in the last year and 112 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 112 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
2D Fighter + Sci-fi
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 62
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $449 → $6.2k → $240 → $719 → $300 → $30 → $239 (still earning) → $105 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 2D Fighter + Sci-fi: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 62
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $179 (exactly $179)
Top 25% $1.7k (exactly $1,678)
Top 5% $53k (exactly $52,615)
Developers, 2 yr 62
Released games 197
Announced 112
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

2D Fighter
effort 5 / 10 · low · frame-precise animation and rollback netcode
Sci-fi
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
2D Fighter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Arcade, PvP
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 1,031 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $180, 1 in 4 over $1.6k, 1 in 20 over $52k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 30 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 112 games are announced against 38 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

2D Fighter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomanceStrong odds8 devs · median $4.0k · 6 announced
  2. + Visual NovelFair11 devs · median $4.0k · 12 announced
  3. + Card BattlerFair10 devs · median $1.0k · 11 announced
  4. + DeckbuildingFair17 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  5. + Auto BattlerFair16 devs · median $719 · 19 announced
  6. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $599 · 18 announced
  7. + RhythmFair10 devs · median $599 · 12 announced
  8. + SimulationFair51 devs · median $598 · 55 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair16 devs · median $538 · 13 announced
  10. + ManagementFair10 devs · median $449 · 14 announced
  11. + SuperheroLong shot11 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  12. + Resource ManagementLong shot13 devs · median $390 · 14 announced

All 129 pairs on the 2D Fighter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
SpiderHeck older $14.99 3,922 93% 118k $1.8M (exactly $1,763,723) Neverjam
The Shadow of Yidhra older $10.99 1,355 89% 41k $447k (exactly $446,744) WhitePeach
Iron Saga VS $29.99 376 79% 11k $338k (exactly $338,287) Gameduchy
Himawari - The Sunflower - older $34.99 176 88% 5.3k $185k (exactly $184,747) blank-note & Frontwing
Thunder Ray older $14.99 270 71% 8.1k $121k (exactly $121,419) Purple Tree S R L
Sora older $8.99 384 94% 12k $104k (exactly $103,565) Orange_Juice
Punch Planet - Early Access · EA older $19.99 171 91% 5.1k $103k (exactly $102,549) Sector-K Games
Diesel Legacy: The Brazen Age $19.99 145 91% 4.4k $87k (exactly $86,956) Maximum Entertainment
Acceleration of SUGURI 2 older $8.99 283 92% 8.5k $76k (exactly $76,325) Orange_Juice
Swords and Sandals 3 Redux $9.99 233 87% 7.0k $70k (exactly $69,830) Whiskeybarrel Studios
PlatyGuard: Swarm Slayer $14.99 117 74% 3.5k $53k (exactly $52,615) ChillyRoom
Coreupt $24.99 41 78% 1.2k $31k (exactly $30,738) Team Coreupt LLC
Galactic Thunderdome $9.99 35 100% 1.1k $10k (exactly $10,490) Pansimula
Immortal Joan: Cyber Revolution $6.99 47 46% 1.4k $9.9k (exactly $9,856) 康师傅红烧甜不辣
Heatwave $10.00 21 95% 630 $6.3k (exactly $6,300) Monochromesoft
Pulsar Crash $14.99 10 100% 300 $4.5k (exactly $4,497) Little Doctor Games
NINJA KAMUI: SHINOBI ORIGINS $19.99 6 100% 180 $3.6k (exactly $3,598) G.rev Ltd.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.