Do I ship it?

Games2D Fighter2D Fighter + Roguelite

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Roguelite 2D Fighter?

2D Fighter + Roguelite

Of 54 developers who shipped a Roguelite 2D Fighter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 91 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $110; 1 in 20 cleared $230k, ×378 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 91 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 91 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
2D Fighter + Roguelite
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 54
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $449 → $719 → $475 → $180 → $959 → $7.0k → $449 (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 2D Fighter + Roguelite: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 54
Bottom 30% $105 (exactly $105)
Median $600 (exactly $600)
Top 25% $7.4k (exactly $7,431)
Top 5% $237k (exactly $237,130)
Developers, 2 yr 54
Released games 123
Announced 91
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 250% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

2D Fighter
effort 5 / 10 · low · frame-precise animation and rollback netcode
Roguelite
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
2D Fighter, Roguelite; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Action, Roguelike
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 3,562 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $110, median $600, 1 in 4 over $7.4k, 1 in 20 over $230k.

3 in 10 developers made under $110. 9 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 91 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

2D Fighter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomanceStrong odds8 devs · median $4.0k · 6 announced
  2. + Visual NovelFair11 devs · median $4.0k · 12 announced
  3. + Card BattlerFair10 devs · median $1.0k · 11 announced
  4. + DeckbuildingFair17 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  5. + Auto BattlerFair16 devs · median $719 · 19 announced
  6. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $599 · 18 announced
  7. + RhythmFair10 devs · median $599 · 12 announced
  8. + SimulationFair51 devs · median $598 · 55 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair16 devs · median $538 · 13 announced
  10. + ManagementFair10 devs · median $449 · 14 announced
  11. + SuperheroLong shot11 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  12. + Resource ManagementLong shot13 devs · median $390 · 14 announced

All 129 pairs on the 2D Fighter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ROUNDS older $5.99 35,738 95% 1.1M $6.4M (exactly $6,422,119) Landfall
Anomaly Agent older $11.99 9,463 94% 284k $3.4M (exactly $3,403,841) Phew Phew Games
Spiritfall older $19.99 1,844 92% 55k $1.1M (exactly $1,105,847) Gentle Giant
Rune Coliseum · EA $18.99 886 79% 27k $505k (exactly $504,754) Rafale Software
Swords and Sandals Immortals older $11.99 1,056 84% 32k $380k (exactly $379,843) Whiskeybarrel Studios
Stickman Trenches older $5.99 1,922 81% 58k $345k (exactly $345,383) Big Play Games
Forestrike $9.99 920 91% 28k $276k (exactly $275,724) Skeleton Crew Studio, Thomas Olsson
Backpack Jianghu $13.99 565 80% 17k $237k (exactly $237,130) 背包工作室
Swords and Sandals 3 Redux $9.99 233 87% 7.0k $70k (exactly $69,830) Whiskeybarrel Studios
IGNOBLE $6.99 331 82% 9.9k $69k (exactly $69,411) Retromagine
Trials of Valor $18.99 100 95% 3.0k $57k (exactly $56,970) Armored Goblin
Shana - Priestess of Tona $9.99 190 74% 5.7k $57k (exactly $56,943) Lustration Team
PlatyGuard: Swarm Slayer $14.99 117 74% 3.5k $53k (exactly $52,615) ChillyRoom
极乐不羡仙 $5.99 164 65% 4.9k $29k (exactly $29,471) 仙常居ソフト
Luctus $9.99 56 94% 1.7k $17k (exactly $16,783) Mriya Game Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.