Do I ship it?

Games2D Fighter2D Fighter + Roguelike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Roguelike 2D Fighter?

2D Fighter + Roguelike

Of 52 developers who shipped a Roguelike 2D Fighter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 88 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×0.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $180k, ×291 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 88 games are announced against 39 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 88 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
2D Fighter + Roguelike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 52
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $178 → $359 → $599 → $180 → $1.8k → $1.6k → $239 (still earning) → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 2D Fighter + Roguelike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 52
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $539 (exactly $539)
Top 25% $7.0k (exactly $7,015)
Top 5% $183k (exactly $182,578)
Developers, 2 yr 52
Released games 134
Announced 88
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 200% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

2D Fighter
effort 5 / 10 · low · frame-precise animation and rollback netcode
Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
2D Fighter, Roguelike; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Roguelite, Action
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 10,087 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $540, 1 in 4 over $7.0k, 1 in 20 over $180k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 7 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 88 games are announced against 39 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

2D Fighter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomanceStrong odds8 devs · median $4.0k · 6 announced
  2. + Visual NovelFair11 devs · median $4.0k · 12 announced
  3. + Card BattlerFair10 devs · median $1.0k · 11 announced
  4. + DeckbuildingFair17 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  5. + Auto BattlerFair16 devs · median $719 · 19 announced
  6. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $599 · 18 announced
  7. + RhythmFair10 devs · median $599 · 12 announced
  8. + SimulationFair51 devs · median $598 · 55 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair16 devs · median $538 · 13 announced
  10. + ManagementFair10 devs · median $449 · 14 announced
  11. + SuperheroLong shot11 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  12. + Resource ManagementLong shot13 devs · median $390 · 14 announced

All 129 pairs on the 2D Fighter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Anomaly Agent older $11.99 9,463 94% 284k $3.4M (exactly $3,403,841) Phew Phew Games
Stick It to the Stickman · EA $11.99 7,918 96% 238k $2.8M (exactly $2,848,105) Free Lives
Spiritfall older $19.99 1,844 92% 55k $1.1M (exactly $1,105,847) Gentle Giant
Rune Coliseum · EA $18.99 886 79% 27k $505k (exactly $504,754) Rafale Software
Swords and Sandals Immortals older $11.99 1,056 84% 32k $380k (exactly $379,843) Whiskeybarrel Studios
Poetry of Blood: Eclipse · EA $14.99 406 91% 12k $183k (exactly $182,578) ZeroGameStudio
Duelists of Eden older $4.99 856 95% 26k $128k (exactly $128,143) Thomas Moon Kang
Swords and Sandals 3 Redux $9.99 233 87% 7.0k $70k (exactly $69,830) Whiskeybarrel Studios
Trials of Valor $18.99 100 95% 3.0k $57k (exactly $56,970) Armored Goblin
Shana - Priestess of Tona $9.99 190 74% 5.7k $57k (exactly $56,943) Lustration Team
PlatyGuard: Swarm Slayer $14.99 117 74% 3.5k $53k (exactly $52,615) ChillyRoom
极乐不羡仙 $5.99 164 65% 4.9k $29k (exactly $29,471) 仙常居ソフト
Heritage $9.99 44 72% 1.3k $13k (exactly $13,187) Big Three Games
Type or Die $13.99 29 31% 870 $12k (exactly $12,171) Type or Die

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.