Do I ship it?

Games › 2D Fighter › 2D Fighter + Procedural Generation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Procedural Generation 2D Fighter?

2D Fighter + Procedural Generation

Only 17 developers shipped a Procedural Generation 2D Fighter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Poetry of Blood: Eclipse, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 34 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $270 in the last 2 years and $270 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 8 developers shipped in the last year and 34 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 45% on the market, 34 announced, ×4.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
2D Fighter + Procedural Generation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $240 → $1.1M → $270 → $299 → $239 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 2D Fighter + Procedural Generation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $270 (exactly $270)
Top 25% $1.8k (exactly $1,800)
Top 5% $183k (exactly $182,578)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 39
Announced 34
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

2D Fighter
effort 5 / 10 · low · frame-precise animation and rollback netcode
Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
2D Fighter, Procedural Generation; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Roguelike, Action Roguelike
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $13.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $13.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 482 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $270, 1 in 4 over $1.8k, 1 in 20 over $180k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 8 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 34 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

2D Fighter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomanceStrong odds8 devs · median $4.0k · 6 announced
  2. + Visual NovelFair11 devs · median $4.0k · 12 announced
  3. + Card BattlerFair10 devs · median $1.0k · 11 announced
  4. + DeckbuildingFair17 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  5. + Auto BattlerFair16 devs · median $719 · 19 announced
  6. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $599 · 18 announced
  7. + RhythmFair10 devs · median $599 · 12 announced
  8. + SimulationFair51 devs · median $598 · 55 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair16 devs · median $538 · 13 announced
  10. + ManagementFair10 devs · median $449 · 14 announced
  11. + SuperheroLong shot11 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  12. + Resource ManagementLong shot13 devs · median $390 · 14 announced

All 129 pairs on the 2D Fighter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

BlazBlue Entropy Effect 2024 · $18M Spiritfall 2024 · $1.1M Poetry of Blood: Eclipse 2024 · EA · $183k TERRORHYTHM (TRRT) - Rhythm driven action beat 'em up! 2018 · $28k Idle Superpowers 2022 · $13k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
BlazBlue Entropy Effect older $19.99 30,410 94% 912k $18M (exactly $18,236,877) 91Act
Spiritfall older $19.99 1,844 92% 55k $1.1M (exactly $1,105,847) Gentle Giant
Poetry of Blood: Eclipse · EA $14.99 406 91% 12k $183k (exactly $182,578) ZeroGameStudio
TERRORHYTHM (TRRT) - Rhythm driven action beat 'em up! older $19.99 47 72% 1.4k $28k (exactly $28,186) EvilCoGames
Idle Superpowers older $6.99 61 77% 1.8k $13k (exactly $12,792) Lutsgames
Type or Die $13.99 29 31% 870 $12k (exactly $12,171) Type or Die
Space Route older $24.99 11 90% 330 $8.2k (exactly $8,247) Space R Studio, Gamesforgames
Just Keep Digging $9.99 16 87% 480 $4.8k (exactly $4,795) Relt
Space Crusaders · EA older $2.99 23 65% 690 $2.1k (exactly $2,063) AbsurdPoncho
Chemical Combat $8.99 7 100% 210 $1.9k (exactly $1,888) SigmoidDev
Taram Baba $4.00 15 93% 450 $1.8k (exactly $1,800) Sofa Interactive
Vector Storm $4.99 3 100% 90 $449 (exactly $449) WHODATYAT
PSI Masquerade Deadly Wonderland $10.99 1 0% 30 $330 (exactly $330) Mururunsoft
Shadow Walker $4.99 2 50% 60 $299 (exactly $299) trying to code
星界远航 Stellar Realm Voyage · EA $8.99 1 100% 30 $270 (exactly $270) SGAIZFTX
Savior List $3.99 2 50% 60 $239 (exactly $239) FromSolo Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.