Do I ship it?

Games2D Fighter2D Fighter + Ninja

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Ninja 2D Fighter?

2D Fighter + Ninja

Only 14 developers shipped a Ninja 2D Fighter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Mortal Kombat: Legacy Kollection, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 15 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $1.8M, ×2899 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 15 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 15 announced, ×1.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
2D Fighter + Ninja
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $120 → $120 → $3.6k → $2.2k → $210 → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 2D Fighter + Ninja: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $2.2k (exactly $2,158)
Top 5% $1.8M (exactly $1,820,636)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 57
Announced 15
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 150% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

2D Fighter
effort 5 / 10 · low · frame-precise animation and rollback netcode
Ninja
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
2D Fighter; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Arcade, Combat
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Dark, Hand-drawn
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 68% positive over 1,505 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $600, 1 in 4 over $2.1k, 1 in 20 over $1.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 15 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

2D Fighter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomanceStrong odds8 devs · median $4.0k · 6 announced
  2. + Visual NovelFair11 devs · median $4.0k · 12 announced
  3. + Card BattlerFair10 devs · median $1.0k · 11 announced
  4. + DeckbuildingFair17 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  5. + Auto BattlerFair16 devs · median $719 · 19 announced
  6. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $599 · 18 announced
  7. + RhythmFair10 devs · median $599 · 12 announced
  8. + SimulationFair51 devs · median $598 · 55 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair16 devs · median $538 · 13 announced
  10. + ManagementFair10 devs · median $449 · 14 announced
  11. + SuperheroLong shot11 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  12. + Resource ManagementLong shot13 devs · median $390 · 14 announced

All 129 pairs on the 2D Fighter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
SAMURAI SHODOWN older $49.53 1,685 81% 51k $2.5M (exactly $2,503,742) SNK CORPORATION
Mortal Kombat: Legacy Kollection $49.99 1,214 63% 36k $1.8M (exactly $1,820,636) Digital Eclipse
Nitroplus Blasterz: Heroines Infinite Duel older $19.99 1,058 90% 32k $634k (exactly $634,483) EXAMU
9 Monkeys of Shaolin older $19.99 726 84% 22k $435k (exactly $435,382) Sobaka Studio
Shadow of the Ninja - Reborn older $19.99 595 71% 18k $357k (exactly $356,822) Winning Entertainment Group Inc.
Roof Rage older $14.99 576 89% 17k $259k (exactly $259,027) Early Melon
Shing! older $19.99 334 79% 10k $200k (exactly $200,300) Mass Creation
Armed with Wings: Rearmed older $9.99 406 87% 12k $122k (exactly $121,678) Sun-Studios
Two Strikes $14.99 256 89% 7.7k $115k (exactly $115,123) Retro Reactor
Okinawa Rush older $17.99 120 82% 3.6k $65k (exactly $64,764) Sokaikan ltd
NINJA KAMUI: SHINOBI ORIGINS $19.99 6 100% 180 $3.6k (exactly $3,598) G.rev Ltd.
Fighties 2 $11.99 6 66% 180 $2.2k (exactly $2,158) Pillow Pig Games
SLOWLY FIGHTER $5.99 12 100% 360 $2.2k (exactly $2,156) Bakumatsu Games
Gangs Of Asia · EA $9.99 6 100% 180 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) Moonpunch
Shinobi $9.99 2 100% 60 $599 (exactly $599) Michael D'Souza
Kunoichi's Cadence $6.99 1 0% 30 $210 (exactly $210) CodeBlues
Ninjas on Trampolines $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Olympus Interactive
Blood And Blade $3.99 1 100% 30 $120 (exactly $120) ZlabiGames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.