Do I ship it?

Games2D Fighter2D Fighter + Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fantasy 2D Fighter?

2D Fighter + Fantasy

Of 100 developers who shipped a Fantasy 2D Fighter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 194 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $390 in the last 2 years and $420 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 67 developers shipped in the last year and 194 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 194 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
2D Fighter + Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 100
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $358 → $1.6k → $898 → $359 → $776 → $239 → $359 (still earning) → $449 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 2D Fighter + Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 100
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $389 (exactly $389)
Top 25% $2.2k (exactly $2,158)
Top 5% $58k (exactly $57,540)
Developers, 2 yr 100
Released games 362
Announced 194
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 90% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

2D Fighter
effort 5 / 10 · low · frame-precise animation and rollback netcode
Fantasy
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
2D Fighter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Combat, PvP
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, Hand-drawn
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 10,969 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $390, 1 in 4 over $2.1k, 1 in 20 over $57k.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. 9 in 10 of the 46 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 194 games are announced against 67 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

2D Fighter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomanceStrong odds8 devs · median $4.0k · 6 announced
  2. + Visual NovelFair11 devs · median $4.0k · 12 announced
  3. + Card BattlerFair10 devs · median $1.0k · 11 announced
  4. + DeckbuildingFair17 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  5. + Auto BattlerFair16 devs · median $719 · 19 announced
  6. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $599 · 18 announced
  7. + RhythmFair10 devs · median $599 · 12 announced
  8. + SimulationFair51 devs · median $598 · 55 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair16 devs · median $538 · 13 announced
  10. + ManagementFair10 devs · median $449 · 14 announced
  11. + SuperheroLong shot11 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  12. + Resource ManagementLong shot13 devs · median $390 · 14 announced

All 129 pairs on the 2D Fighter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
GUILTY GEAR -STRIVE- older $39.99 47,650 88% 1.4M $57M (exactly $57,165,705) Arc System Works
Mortal Kombat X older $19.99 39,392 88% 1.2M $24M (exactly $23,623,382) NetherRealm Studios, QLOC
SOULCALIBUR VI older $59.99 9,768 83% 293k $18M (exactly $17,579,470) BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc., Dimps Corpor… (BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc., Dimps Corporation)
BlazBlue Centralfiction older $39.99 9,476 94% 284k $11M (exactly $11,368,357) Arc System Works
Rivals of Aether II $29.99 6,980 78% 209k $6.3M (exactly $6,279,906) Aether Studios
Kingdom Rush Vengeance - Tower Defense older $19.99 9,906 93% 297k $5.9M (exactly $5,940,628) Ironhide Game Studio
Injustice: Gods Among Us Ultimate Edition older $19.99 9,864 86% 296k $5.9M (exactly $5,915,441) NetherRealm Studios, High Voltage Softw… (NetherRealm Studios, High Voltage Software)
Granblue Fantasy: Versus older $19.99 7,631 83% 229k $4.6M (exactly $4,576,311) Cygames, Inc., Arc System Works
Granblue Fantasy Versus: Rising older $24.99 5,944 83% 178k $4.5M (exactly $4,456,217) Cygames, Inc., Arc System Works
Avatar Legends: The Fighting Game $29.99 3,298 85% 99k $3.0M (exactly $2,967,211) Gameplay Group International
Swords and Sandals 3 Redux $9.99 233 87% 7.0k $70k (exactly $69,830) Whiskeybarrel Studios
AQUAPAZZA: Aquaplus Dream Match $19.99 104 33% 3.1k $62k (exactly $62,369) AQUAPLUS
Age of Barbarians Chronicles $18.99 101 76% 3.0k $58k (exactly $57,540) Crian Soft
Blueblood Arena · EA $8.99 88 96% 2.6k $24k (exactly $23,734) Team Blueblood
face the immortal · EA $17.99 41 92% 1.2k $22k (exactly $22,128) DY
Morkull Ragast's Rage $17.99 39 69% 1.2k $21k (exactly $21,048) Disaster Games
The Amazing Crackpots Club! $14.99 41 95% 1.2k $18k (exactly $18,438) Astrobard Games, IguanaBee
Heritage $9.99 44 72% 1.3k $13k (exactly $13,187) Big Three Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.