Do I ship it?

Games2D Fighter2D Fighter + Exploration

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Exploration 2D Fighter?

2D Fighter + Exploration

Of 41 developers who shipped an Exploration 2D Fighter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 97 more are announced, ×4.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450 in the last 2 years and $330 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 21 developers shipped in the last year and 97 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 97 announced, ×4.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
2D Fighter + Exploration
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 41
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $270 → $2.2k → $300 → $270 → $1.4k → $1.8k → $538 (still earning) → $30 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 2D Fighter + Exploration: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 41
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $2.4k (exactly $2,397)
Top 5% $22k (exactly $22,128)
Developers, 2 yr 41
Released games 143
Announced 97
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

2D Fighter
effort 5 / 10 · low · frame-precise animation and rollback netcode
Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
2D Fighter, Exploration; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Action-Adventure
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Hand-drawn
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 72% positive over 5,202 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $450, 1 in 4 over $2.3k, 1 in 20 over $22k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 23 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 97 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

2D Fighter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomanceStrong odds8 devs · median $4.0k · 6 announced
  2. + Visual NovelFair11 devs · median $4.0k · 12 announced
  3. + Card BattlerFair10 devs · median $1.0k · 11 announced
  4. + DeckbuildingFair17 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  5. + Auto BattlerFair16 devs · median $719 · 19 announced
  6. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $599 · 18 announced
  7. + RhythmFair10 devs · median $599 · 12 announced
  8. + SimulationFair51 devs · median $598 · 55 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair16 devs · median $538 · 13 announced
  10. + ManagementFair10 devs · median $449 · 14 announced
  11. + SuperheroLong shot11 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  12. + Resource ManagementLong shot13 devs · median $390 · 14 announced

All 129 pairs on the 2D Fighter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Path of Kung Fu $14.99 4,880 72% 146k $2.2M (exactly $2,194,536) 游鲤化龙工作室
Nocturnal older $16.99 511 90% 15k $260k (exactly $260,457) Sunnyside Games
RitualSummon older $10.99 267 76% 8.0k $88k (exactly $88,030) WhitePeach
极乐不羡仙 $5.99 164 65% 4.9k $29k (exactly $29,471) 仙常居ソフト
The Rumble Fish 2 older $14.99 58 50% 1.7k $26k (exactly $26,083) 株式会社3goo
face the immortal · EA $17.99 41 92% 1.2k $22k (exactly $22,128) DY
Morkull Ragast's Rage $17.99 39 69% 1.2k $21k (exactly $21,048) Disaster Games
Bad Cat older $9.99 68 83% 2.0k $20k (exactly $20,380) FastGame, VICTORIA Games
东方十昊狱 ~ Hella Dazzling Hell!! · EA older $9.99 58 67% 1.7k $17k (exactly $17,383) Lonhong Team
Type or Die $13.99 29 31% 870 $12k (exactly $12,171) Type or Die
Just Keep Digging $9.99 16 87% 480 $4.8k (exactly $4,795) Relt
Barbarian Saga: The Beastmaster $14.99 9 55% 270 $4.0k (exactly $4,047) Dormidin Studio
Stepfight $9.99 10 100% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) Gamesforgames
Dream Adventurer $19.99 4 100% 120 $2.4k (exactly $2,399) Spring Tree Work
Fight.EXE $7.99 10 100% 300 $2.4k (exactly $2,397) SolidValentine

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.