Do I ship it?

Games2D Fighter2D Fighter + Collectathon

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Collectathon 2D Fighter?

2D Fighter + Collectathon

Only 16 developers shipped a Collectathon 2D Fighter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Decline's Drops, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 7 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×0.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $59; 1 in 20 cleared $76k, ×122 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 7 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 7 announced, ×0.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
2D Fighter + Collectathon
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.6k → $60 → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 2D Fighter + Collectathon: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $59 (exactly $59)
Median $538 (exactly $538)
Top 25% $1.6k (exactly $1,615)
Top 5% $76k (exactly $76,449)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 40
Announced 7
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $2.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

2D Fighter
effort 5 / 10 · low · frame-precise animation and rollback netcode
Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
2D Fighter, Collectathon
Price point
$2.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 569 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $59, median $540, 1 in 4 over $1.6k, 1 in 20 over $76k.

3 in 10 developers made under $59. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 7 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

2D Fighter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomanceStrong odds8 devs · median $4.0k · 6 announced
  2. + Visual NovelFair11 devs · median $4.0k · 12 announced
  3. + Card BattlerFair10 devs · median $1.0k · 11 announced
  4. + DeckbuildingFair17 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  5. + Auto BattlerFair16 devs · median $719 · 19 announced
  6. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $599 · 18 announced
  7. + RhythmFair10 devs · median $599 · 12 announced
  8. + SimulationFair51 devs · median $598 · 55 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair16 devs · median $538 · 13 announced
  10. + ManagementFair10 devs · median $449 · 14 announced
  11. + SuperheroLong shot11 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  12. + Resource ManagementLong shot13 devs · median $390 · 14 announced

All 129 pairs on the 2D Fighter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Decline's Drops $14.99 170 96% 5.1k $76k (exactly $76,449) Le Moulin aux Bulles
IGNOBLE $6.99 331 82% 9.9k $69k (exactly $69,411) Retromagine
Cavegirl Adventures older $4.99 34 73% 1.0k $5.1k (exactly $5,090) Bedrock Tribes
PixelJunk™ Scrappers Deluxe older $14.99 11 36% 330 $4.9k (exactly $4,947) Q-Games Ltd.
Espectro The Fighters Focus $8.99 15 100% 450 $4.0k (exactly $4,046) Bytteam Game Studio
Valkeala Birds $2.99 18 77% 540 $1.6k (exactly $1,615) Valkeala Software, Tero Lunkka
Assassin Of Aliens $3.99 10 80% 300 $1.2k (exactly $1,197) Saylor Games
Pirate Guy $2.99 11 81% 330 $987 (exactly $987) Cow Games
Gisselle's Adventure $7.99 3 100% 90 $719 (exactly $719) Serch Onodera
Pushing Kids Off Bikes $2.99 6 100% 180 $538 (exactly $538) Kie James Yavorsky (Game Developer), Ya… (Kie James Yavorsky (Game Developer), Yavo (Kie Christopher Yavorsky) (Game Developer), Daniel Haddock (Artist), Al Lang (Voice Actor))
SkullPirates $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Arcade Distillery
All The Stars $0.99 4 100% 120 $119 (exactly $119) Zacharia Gebro

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.