Do I ship it?

Games2D Fighter2D Fighter + Choose Your Own Adventure

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choose Your Own Adventure 2D Fighter?

2D Fighter + Choose Your Own Adventure

Only 11 developers shipped a Choose Your Own Adventure 2D Fighter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, EmberStride, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 19 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $240 in the last 2 years and $210 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 8 developers shipped in the last year and 19 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 19 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
2D Fighter + Choose Your Own Adventure
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $238 → $239 → $624 → $240 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 2D Fighter + Choose Your Own Adventure: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $240 (exactly $240)
Top 25% $4.3k (exactly $4,286)
Top 5% $11k (exactly $10,796)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 44
Announced 19
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

2D Fighter
effort 5 / 10 · low · frame-precise animation and rollback netcode
Choose Your Own Adventure
effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
2D Fighter, Choose Your Own Adventure; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Strategy
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 165 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $240, 1 in 4 over $4.2k, 1 in 20 over $10k.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. All of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 19 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

2D Fighter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomanceStrong odds8 devs · median $4.0k · 6 announced
  2. + Visual NovelFair11 devs · median $4.0k · 12 announced
  3. + Card BattlerFair10 devs · median $1.0k · 11 announced
  4. + DeckbuildingFair17 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  5. + Auto BattlerFair16 devs · median $719 · 19 announced
  6. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $599 · 18 announced
  7. + RhythmFair10 devs · median $599 · 12 announced
  8. + SimulationFair51 devs · median $598 · 55 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair16 devs · median $538 · 13 announced
  10. + ManagementFair10 devs · median $449 · 14 announced
  11. + SuperheroLong shot11 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  12. + Resource ManagementLong shot13 devs · median $390 · 14 announced

All 129 pairs on the 2D Fighter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
烈山海贰 older $19.99 48 81% 1.4k $29k (exactly $28,786) 图纳密游戏
Battle Girls older $9.99 80 85% 2.4k $24k (exactly $23,976) Dharker Studios
EmberStride $29.99 12 91% 360 $11k (exactly $10,796) Sharkgame
The Great Axe $19.99 13 84% 390 $7.8k (exactly $7,796) Gamesforgames
Byte The Bullet $5.99 38 92% 1.1k $6.8k (exactly $6,829) Esteban Marin
Gold Defence $9.99 20 65% 600 $6.0k (exactly $5,994) Gamesforgames
The Orc Invasion $10.99 13 92% 390 $4.3k (exactly $4,286) ATK Games
Survalker $9.99 14 85% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) Gamesforgames
Happy Piggy 2 $9.99 13 100% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) Gamesforgames
ENIGMA : An Illusion Named Family older $4.99 25 96% 750 $3.7k (exactly $3,742) AV media lab
The Inseparables $9.99 11 100% 330 $3.3k (exactly $3,297) Gamesforgames
Stepfight $9.99 10 100% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) Gamesforgames
Dont Jump: Gamesforfarm $0.99 21 85% 630 $624 (exactly $624) Gamesforfarm

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.