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Should I ship a Choices Matter 2D Fighter?
2D Fighter + Choices Matter
Of 32 developers who shipped a Choices Matter 2D Fighter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 64 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $180 in the last 2 years and $120 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 19 developers shipped in the last year and 64 games are announced.
| Bottom 30% | $0 (exactly $0) |
|---|---|
| Median | $179 (exactly $179) |
| Top 25% | $3.6k (exactly $3,596) |
| Top 5% | $43k (exactly $43,189) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 32 |
| Released games | 86 |
| Announced | 64 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- 2D Fighter
- effort 5 / 10 · low · frame-precise animation and rollback netcode
- Choices Matter
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- 2D Fighter, Choices Matter; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Platformer, 2D Platformer
- Price point
- $4.99 typical · top 25% priced $18.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Side Scroller, Story Rich
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $18.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 84% positive over 338 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $50. All of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 64 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
2D Fighter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + RomanceStrong odds
- + Visual NovelFair
- + Card BattlerFair
- + DeckbuildingFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + IdlerFair
- + RhythmFair
- + SimulationFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + ManagementFair
- + SuperheroLong shot
- + Resource ManagementLong shot
Comparable games
Kingdom Rush Vengeance - Tower Defense 2020 · $5.9M 
Punch Club 2016 · $3.6M 
Anomaly Agent 2024 · $3.4M 
Cobra Kai: The Karate Kid Saga Continues 2021 · $250k 
Himawari - The Sunflower - 2016 · $185k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Kingdom Rush Vengeance - Tower Defense | older | $19.99 | 9,906 93% | 297k | $5.9M (exactly $5,940,628) | Ironhide Game Studio |
| | Punch Club | older | $9.99 | 12,098 81% | 363k | $3.6M (exactly $3,625,771) | Lazy Bear Games |
| | Anomaly Agent | older | $11.99 | 9,463 94% | 284k | $3.4M (exactly $3,403,841) | Phew Phew Games |
| | Cobra Kai: The Karate Kid Saga Continues | older | $19.99 | 417 84% | 13k | $250k (exactly $250,075) | Flux Games |
| | Himawari - The Sunflower - | older | $34.99 | 176 88% | 5.3k | $185k (exactly $184,747) | blank-note & Frontwing |
 | Listen to the Wind | older | $11.99 | 421 73% | 13k | $151k (exactly $151,434) | Papertiger Studio |
 | Duelists of Eden | older | $4.99 | 856 95% | 26k | $128k (exactly $128,143) | Thomas Moon Kang |
 | Trials of Valor | $18.99 | 100 95% | 3.0k | $57k (exactly $56,970) | Armored Goblin | |
 | Lady Death Demonicron | $39.99 | 36 47% | 1.1k | $43k (exactly $43,189) | Art Of Play Interactive | |
 | Battle Girls | older | $9.99 | 80 85% | 2.4k | $24k (exactly $23,976) | Dharker Studios |
 | Heritage | $9.99 | 44 72% | 1.3k | $13k (exactly $13,187) | Big Three Games | |
 | Creepy Creepy Love | $4.99 | 62 93% | 1.9k | $9.3k (exactly $9,281) | BYYONI Entertainment | |
 | Byte The Bullet | $5.99 | 38 92% | 1.1k | $6.8k (exactly $6,829) | Esteban Marin | |
 | The Orc Invasion | $10.99 | 13 92% | 390 | $4.3k (exactly $4,286) | ATK Games | |
 | Super Miners | · EA | $9.99 | 13 92% | 390 | $3.9k (exactly $3,896) | METAGAR |
 | Nazar | $9.99 | 12 75% | 360 | $3.6k (exactly $3,596) | Eray Dinc Studio, Recontact Games | |
 | Skullhunter A Worm's Tale | $7.99 | 10 100% | 300 | $2.4k (exactly $2,397) | Oliver Arett | |
 | Shield Operator | $4.99 | 10 50% | 300 | $1.5k (exactly $1,497) | Puantaun Studio |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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