Do I ship it?

Games › 2D Fighter › 2D Fighter + Bullet Hell

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Bullet Hell 2D Fighter?

2D Fighter + Bullet Hell

Of 44 developers who shipped a Bullet Hell 2D Fighter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 71 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $240 in the last 2 years and $270 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 26 developers shipped in the last year and 71 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 71 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
2D Fighter + Bullet Hell
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 44
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $298 → $359 → $298 → $180 → $299 → $2.2k → $120 (still earning) → $90 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 2D Fighter + Bullet Hell: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 44
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $239 (exactly $239)
Top 25% $719 (exactly $719)
Top 5% $3.6k (exactly $3,598)
Developers, 2 yr 44
Released games 161
Announced 71
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

2D Fighter
effort 5 / 10 · low · frame-precise animation and rollback netcode
Bullet Hell
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
2D Fighter, Bullet Hell; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Arcade, Combat
Price point
$3.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Cute, 2.5D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 317 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $240, 1 in 4 over $710, 1 in 20 over $3.5k.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. All of the 27 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 71 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

2D Fighter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomanceStrong odds8 devs · median $4.0k · 6 announced
  2. + Visual NovelFair11 devs · median $4.0k · 12 announced
  3. + Card BattlerFair10 devs · median $1.0k · 11 announced
  4. + DeckbuildingFair17 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  5. + Auto BattlerFair16 devs · median $719 · 19 announced
  6. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $599 · 18 announced
  7. + RhythmFair10 devs · median $599 · 12 announced
  8. + SimulationFair51 devs · median $598 · 55 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair16 devs · median $538 · 13 announced
  10. + ManagementFair10 devs · median $449 · 14 announced
  11. + SuperheroLong shot11 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  12. + Resource ManagementLong shot13 devs · median $390 · 14 announced

All 129 pairs on the 2D Fighter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

東方憑依華　～ Antinomy of Common Flowers. 2018 · $1.3M Maiden and Spell 2020 · $320k Pulling No Punches 2022 · $169k Duelists of Eden 2024 · $128k Sora 2016 · $104k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
東方憑依華　～ Antinomy of Common Flowers. older $24.99 1,769 91% 53k $1.3M (exactly $1,326,219) 黄昏フロンティア
Maiden and Spell older $12.99 822 97% 25k $320k (exactly $320,333) mino_dev
Pulling No Punches older $9.99 563 95% 17k $169k (exactly $168,731) BrainDead Broccoli
Duelists of Eden older $4.99 856 95% 26k $128k (exactly $128,143) Thomas Moon Kang
Sora older $8.99 384 94% 12k $104k (exactly $103,565) Orange_Juice
Super Crush KO older $14.99 211 96% 6.3k $95k (exactly $94,887) Vertex Pop
Acceleration of SUGURI 2 older $8.99 283 92% 8.5k $76k (exactly $76,325) Orange_Juice
DaemonBride:ADDITIONAL GAIN $19.99 94 82% 2.8k $56k (exactly $56,372) Team Arcana, Kizawaya
Rubber Hose Rampage older $9.99 115 53% 3.5k $34k (exactly $34,466) Revie Studios
CPU Invaders - 3i Atlas $4.99 77 98% 2.3k $12k (exactly $11,527) Microblast Games
Pulsar Crash $14.99 10 100% 300 $4.5k (exactly $4,497) Little Doctor Games
NINJA KAMUI: SHINOBI ORIGINS $19.99 6 100% 180 $3.6k (exactly $3,598) G.rev Ltd.
Slime Battles $4.99 15 100% 450 $2.2k (exactly $2,246) Nish Studios
CORA $6.99 8 87% 240 $1.7k (exactly $1,678) Empty House Games
CPU Invaders - Aim Hero $0.99 53 100% 1.6k $1.6k (exactly $1,574) Microblast Games
Danmaku Fighters · EA $12.99 4 100% 120 $1.6k (exactly $1,559) Baby Bear Fish
CPU Invaders - Movie Attack $0.99 42 100% 1.3k $1.2k (exactly $1,247) Microblast Games
Cat Survivors $4.99 8 87% 240 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) Ibon Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.