Do I ship it?

Games2D Fighter2D Fighter + Artificial Intelligence

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an AI 2D Fighter?

2D Fighter + Artificial Intelligence

Only 15 developers shipped an AI 2D Fighter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Little Fighter 2 Remastered, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 20 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $390 in the last 2 years and $300 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 11 developers shipped in the last year and 20 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 20 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
2D Fighter + Artificial Intelligence
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $300 → $298 → $1.8k → $389 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 2D Fighter + Artificial Intelligence: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $389 (exactly $389)
Top 25% $6.9k (exactly $6,886)
Top 5% $843k (exactly $843,228)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 43
Announced 20
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.49

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 175% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

2D Fighter
effort 5 / 10 · low · frame-precise animation and rollback netcode
Artificial Intelligence
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
2D Fighter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry 4 Player Local, Arcade, Beat 'em up
Price point
$6.49 typical · top 25% priced $15.88 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Funny, Retro
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.88 or above; the middle game at $6.49.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 2,578 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $390, 1 in 4 over $6.8k, 1 in 20 over $840k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 20 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

2D Fighter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomanceStrong odds8 devs · median $4.0k · 6 announced
  2. + Visual NovelFair11 devs · median $4.0k · 12 announced
  3. + Card BattlerFair10 devs · median $1.0k · 11 announced
  4. + DeckbuildingFair17 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  5. + Auto BattlerFair16 devs · median $719 · 19 announced
  6. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $599 · 18 announced
  7. + RhythmFair10 devs · median $599 · 12 announced
  8. + SimulationFair51 devs · median $598 · 55 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair16 devs · median $538 · 13 announced
  10. + ManagementFair10 devs · median $449 · 14 announced
  11. + SuperheroLong shot11 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  12. + Resource ManagementLong shot13 devs · median $390 · 14 announced

All 129 pairs on the 2D Fighter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Little Fighter 2 Remastered $15.88 1,770 76% 53k $843k (exactly $843,228) Little Fighter Co Pty Ltd, Marti Wong
Backpack Jianghu $13.99 565 80% 17k $237k (exactly $237,130) 背包工作室
Femboy Futa Mania 🌶️ $14.99 174 71% 5.2k $78k (exactly $78,248) Lewd Star
ChanceBall $4.99 46 100% 1.4k $6.9k (exactly $6,886) Second Tempo Games
Blade Jumper older $6.99 27 81% 810 $5.7k (exactly $5,662) bit paradigm
捜査官の試練INVESTIGATOR TRIALS older $3.99 43 88% 1.3k $5.1k (exactly $5,147) GreenTeaGame
Fighties 2 $11.99 6 66% 180 $2.2k (exactly $2,158) Pillow Pig Games
Lone Warrior's Fist $5.99 10 100% 300 $1.8k (exactly $1,797) CreatiCell Games
Gladihaters · EA older $11.99 4 50% 120 $1.4k (exactly $1,439) Aden Interactive
The Icon Battles: Game older $5.99 4 50% 120 $719 (exactly $719) Yenot Software
Mad Bang Bang $12.99 1 0% 30 $390 (exactly $390) Tomorrow Baby
Maev $6.49 2 100% 60 $389 (exactly $389) Keepsake
赤马 $1.99 2 100% 60 $119 (exactly $119) 玄逍工作室
V-Shift $1.99 2 100% 60 $119 (exactly $119) Propel Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.