Do I ship it?

Games2D Fighter2D Fighter + 4 Player Local

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a 4 Player Local 2D Fighter?

2D Fighter + 4 Player Local

Of 58 developers who shipped a 4 Player Local 2D Fighter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 102 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×1.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $510k, ×826 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 102 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 102 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
2D Fighter + 4 Player Local
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 58
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $359 → $78k → $898 → $2.1k → $1.2k → $719 → $479 (still earning) → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 2D Fighter + 4 Player Local: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 58
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Top 25% $4.8k (exactly $4,823)
Top 5% $519k (exactly $519,008)
Developers, 2 yr 58
Released games 212
Announced 102
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

2D Fighter
effort 5 / 10 · low · frame-precise animation and rollback netcode
4 Player Local
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
2D Fighter, 4 Player Local; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, PvP, Local Multiplayer
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.88 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.88 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 11,882 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $1.0k, 1 in 4 over $4.8k, 1 in 20 over $510k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 8 in 10 of the 37 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 102 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

2D Fighter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomanceStrong odds8 devs · median $4.0k · 6 announced
  2. + Visual NovelFair11 devs · median $4.0k · 12 announced
  3. + Card BattlerFair10 devs · median $1.0k · 11 announced
  4. + DeckbuildingFair17 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  5. + Auto BattlerFair16 devs · median $719 · 19 announced
  6. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $599 · 18 announced
  7. + RhythmFair10 devs · median $599 · 12 announced
  8. + SimulationFair51 devs · median $598 · 55 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair16 devs · median $538 · 13 announced
  10. + ManagementFair10 devs · median $449 · 14 announced
  11. + SuperheroLong shot11 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  12. + Resource ManagementLong shot13 devs · median $390 · 14 announced

All 129 pairs on the 2D Fighter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Rivals of Aether older $29.99 33,284 96% 999k $30M (exactly $29,945,615) Aether Studios
Stick Fight: The Game older $4.99 99,952 93% 3.0M $15M (exactly $14,962,814) Landfall West
Bopl Battle older $9.99 21,530 97% 646k $6.5M (exactly $6,452,541) Johan Grönvall
Rivals of Aether II $29.99 6,980 78% 209k $6.3M (exactly $6,279,906) Aether Studios
Lethal League Blaze older $19.99 4,767 97% 143k $2.9M (exactly $2,858,770) Team Reptile
SpiderHeck older $14.99 3,922 93% 118k $1.8M (exactly $1,763,723) Neverjam
Slap City older $19.99 2,409 95% 72k $1.4M (exactly $1,444,677) Ludosity
TowerFall Ascension older $14.99 2,942 95% 88k $1.3M (exactly $1,323,017) Maddy Makes Games Inc., Extremely OK Ga… (Maddy Makes Games Inc., Extremely OK Games, Ltd.)
Lethal League older $13.99 2,967 95% 89k $1.2M (exactly $1,245,250) Team Reptile
Little Fighter 2 Remastered $15.88 1,770 76% 53k $843k (exactly $843,228) Little Fighter Co Pty Ltd, Marti Wong
A Few Quick Matches $6.99 2,475 85% 74k $519k (exactly $519,008) Studio Bidou
Phantom Breaker: Battle Grounds Ultimate $24.99 205 84% 6.2k $154k (exactly $153,688) Rocket Panda Games Japan
Diesel Legacy: The Brazen Age $19.99 145 91% 4.4k $87k (exactly $86,956) Maximum Entertainment
Royalty Free-For-All $11.99 104 86% 3.1k $37k (exactly $37,409) AAAA Games, LLC
Oblin Party $7.99 85 91% 2.6k $20k (exactly $20,374) Tellus Games
We Could Be Heroes $14.99 42 85% 1.3k $19k (exactly $18,887) CebCode Games
The Amazing Crackpots Club! $14.99 41 95% 1.2k $18k (exactly $18,438) Astrobard Games, IguanaBee
Galactic Thunderdome $9.99 35 100% 1.1k $10k (exactly $10,490) Pansimula

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.