Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Extraction Shooter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Extraction Shooter?

Extraction Shooter

Of 78 developers who shipped an Extraction Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 165 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $54k, ×36 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $7.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $45M, ×30201 the market median. Revenue is up 115% on the market; 165 games are announced against 48 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 36.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 115% on the market, 165 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Extraction Shooter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 78
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.4M → $2.0M → $2.0M → $16k → $163k → $189k (still earning) → $31k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Extraction Shooter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 78
Bottom 30% $7.2k (exactly $7,186)
Median $54k (exactly $53,964)
Top 25% $1.2M (exactly $1,226,332)
Top 5% $45M (exactly $45,240,892)
Developers, 2 yr 78
Released games 111
Announced 165
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 115% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Extraction Shooter
effort 8 / 10 · low · online PvPvE sessions with persistent stash servers

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Extraction Shooter
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 596,788 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $7.2k, median $54k, 1 in 4 over $1.2M, 1 in 20 over $45M.

3 in 10 developers made under $7.2k. 5 in 10 of the 35 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 165 games are announced against 48 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Extraction Shooter

2 pairs with a settingwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Extraction Shooter + Sci-fi Poor odds $82k 26 devs
  2. Extraction Shooter + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $65k 21 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

HELLDIVERS™ 2 2024 · $1.0B ARC Raiders 2025 · $359M Hunt: Showdown 1896 2019 · $192M Escape from Tarkov 2025 · $84M Gray Zone Warfare 2024 · EA · $83M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
HELLDIVERS™ 2 older $39.99 838,901 76% 25M $1.0B (exactly $1,006,429,530) Arrowhead Game Studios
ARC Raiders $39.99 299,346 82% 9.0M $359M (exactly $359,125,396) Embark Studios
Hunt: Showdown 1896 older $29.99 213,023 74% 6.4M $192M (exactly $191,656,793) Crytek
Escape from Tarkov $49.99 55,824 49% 1.7M $84M (exactly $83,719,253) Battlestate Games
Gray Zone Warfare · EA older $39.99 69,146 72% 2.1M $83M (exactly $82,954,456) MADFINGER Games, a.s.
Marathon $39.99 44,919 81% 1.3M $54M (exactly $53,889,324) Bungie
Escape From Duckov $17.99 83,826 85% 2.5M $45M (exactly $45,240,892) Team Soda
Witchfire · EA $39.99 17,131 91% 514k $21M (exactly $20,552,061) The Astronauts
The Forever Winter · EA $29.99 21,376 68% 641k $19M (exactly $19,231,987) Fun Dog Studios
Far Far West · EA $19.99 31,458 95% 944k $19M (exactly $18,865,363) Evil Raptor
Mistfall Hunter $24.99 16,045 53% 481k $12M (exactly $12,028,936) Bellring Games
SAND: Raiders of Sophie · EA $24.99 12,485 49% 375k $9.4M (exactly $9,360,004) Hologryph, TowerHaus
ZERO Sievert $19.99 14,378 84% 431k $8.6M (exactly $8,622,487) CABO Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.