Do I ship it?

GamesMechanicsChess

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Chess game?

Chess

Of 115 developers who shipped a Chess game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 158 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 1 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360, ×3.0 the market's $120 for a 1 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $60. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 158 games are announced against 83 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 158 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Chess
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 115
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $1.1k → $3.6k → $899 → $359 → $419 → $748 (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Chess: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 115
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $1.5k (exactly $1,498)
Top 5% $29k (exactly $28,794)
Developers, 2 yr 115
Released games 360
Announced 158
Effort 1 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 150% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Chess
effort 1 / 10 · high · fully specified rules and known engines

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
1 / 10 · text and UI only
Systems
Chess
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 3,612 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $360, 1 in 4 over $1.4k, 1 in 20 over $28k.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. 8 in 10 of the 45 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 158 games are announced against 83 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Chess

3 pairs with a settingwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Chess + Fantasy Poor odds $599 18 devs
  2. Chess + Medieval Poor odds $598 16 devs
  3. Chess + Artificial Intelligence Dead $0 7 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
5D Chess With Multiverse Time Travel older $11.99 8,097 96% 243k $2.9M (exactly $2,912,491) Conor Petersen, Thunkspace, LLC
Shotgun King: The Final Checkmate older $9.99 5,918 92% 178k $1.8M (exactly $1,773,625) PUNKCAKE Delicieux
Frozen Synapse older $24.99 1,108 89% 33k $831k (exactly $830,668) Mode 7
Gambonanza $14.99 1,604 74% 48k $721k (exactly $721,319) Blukulélé
Chess Ultra older $12.99 1,832 76% 55k $714k (exactly $713,930) Ripstone
Still There older $14.99 770 87% 23k $346k (exactly $346,269) GhostShark
Battle Chess: Game of Kings™ older $29.99 360 52% 11k $324k (exactly $323,892) Olde Sküül, Sculptured Software
Sex Chess older $9.99 1,064 78% 32k $319k (exactly $318,881) Evil Boobs Cult
Master of Chess $19.99 290 83% 8.7k $174k (exactly $173,913) BRANE
King of the Bridge older $2.99 1,667 95% 50k $150k (exactly $149,530) Finn Schuuring
Passant: A Chess Roguelike $11.99 363 79% 11k $131k (exactly $130,571) Marc Makes Games
Humiliation Dungeon Survivors $9.99 325 87% 9.8k $97k (exactly $97,402) Naku Kinoko
Cat Chess $6.99 456 87% 14k $96k (exactly $95,623) Capricia Labs
Hyper Chess $2.99 321 92% 9.6k $29k (exactly $28,794) Grouch, SuitNtie
Below the Crown $14.99 64 96% 1.9k $29k (exactly $28,781) Misfits Attic
WizardChess $14.99 56 83% 1.7k $25k (exactly $25,183) TwoPM Studios
Chess Infinity $9.99 84 63% 2.5k $25k (exactly $25,175) Rockwater Games
Quantum Chess $14.99 49 63% 1.5k $22k (exactly $22,035) Quantum Realm Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.