Should I ship a Capitalist game?
Capitalism
Of 896 developers who shipped a Capitalist game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,497 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.8k, ×6.0 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $460k, ×970 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 1,497 games are announced against 603 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $599 (exactly $599) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.8k (exactly $2,844) |
| Top 25% | $26k (exactly $25,774) |
| Top 5% | $461k (exactly $460,725) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 896 |
| Released games | 1,907 |
| Announced | 1,497 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 90% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Capitalism
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 90% positive over 214,741 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 400 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,497 games are announced against 603 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.
All pairs with Capitalism
- Hidden Object + Capitalism Poor odds $419
- Third-Person Shooter + Capitalism Dead $139k
- Turn-Based + Capitalism Dead $20k
- Score Attack + Capitalism Dead $210
Comparable games
HELLDIVERS™ 2 2024 · $1.0B 
Fallout 76 2020 · $94M 
Victoria 3 2022 · $62M 
Prison Architect 2015 · $54M 
HITMAN World of Assassination 2022 · $53M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | HELLDIVERS™ 2 | older | $39.99 | 838,901 76% | 25M | $1.0B (exactly $1,006,429,530) | Arrowhead Game Studios |
| | Fallout 76 | older | $39.99 | 78,346 74% | 2.4M | $94M (exactly $93,991,696) | Bethesda Game Studios |
| | Victoria 3 | older | $49.99 | 41,251 71% | 1.2M | $62M (exactly $61,864,125) | Paradox Development Studio |
| | Prison Architect | older | $29.99 | 59,802 89% | 1.8M | $54M (exactly $53,803,859) | Introversion Software, Double Eleven |
| | HITMAN World of Assassination | older | $29.99 | 58,655 87% | 1.8M | $53M (exactly $52,771,904) | IO Interactive A/S |
 | Supermarket Simulator | $19.99 | 79,236 92% | 2.4M | $48M (exactly $47,517,829) | Nokta Games | |
 | TCG Card Shop Simulator | $19.99 | 47,357 96% | 1.4M | $28M (exactly $28,399,993) | OPNeon Games | |
 | Suicide Squad: Kill the Justice League | older | $69.99 | 12,718 60% | 382k | $27M (exactly $26,703,985) | Rocksteady Studios |
 | Tropico 6 | older | $39.99 | 19,837 88% | 595k | $24M (exactly $23,798,449) | Limbic Entertainment, Realmforge Studios |
 | Potion Craft: Alchemist Simulator | older | $19.99 | 37,870 92% | 1.1M | $23M (exactly $22,710,639) | niceplay games |
 | Le Mans Ultimate | $39.99 | 15,068 79% | 452k | $18M (exactly $18,077,080) | Studio 397 | |
 | The Outer Worlds 2 | $69.99 | 8,450 73% | 254k | $18M (exactly $17,742,465) | Obsidian Entertainment | |
 | Big Ambitions | $25.99 | 14,003 92% | 420k | $11M (exactly $10,918,139) | Hovgaard Games | |
 | The Bazaar | $19.99 | 14,931 70% | 448k | $9.0M (exactly $8,954,121) | Tempo | |
 | Waterpark Simulator | $12.99 | 13,280 96% | 398k | $5.2M (exactly $5,175,216) | CayPlay | |
 | News Tower | $24.99 | 4,316 94% | 129k | $3.2M (exactly $3,235,705) | Sparrow Night | |
 | Scritchy Scratchy | $6.99 | 15,245 94% | 457k | $3.2M (exactly $3,196,876) | Lunch Money Games | |
 | MindsEye | $34.99 | 2,855 48% | 86k | $3.0M (exactly $2,996,894) | Build A Rocket Boy |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.