Do I ship it?

GamesStrategyStrategy + Idler

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Idler Strategy game?

Strategy + Idler

Of 696 developers who shipped an Idler Strategy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 988 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×3.0 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $510. Revenue is up 90% on the market; 988 games are announced against 545 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 90% on the market, 988 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy + Idler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 696
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $1.0k → $5.1k → $1.0k → $2.5k → $2.7k → $2.1k (still earning) → $1.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy + Idler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 696
Bottom 30% $505 (exactly $505)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,915)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $14,442)
Top 5% $223k (exactly $223,053)
Developers, 2 yr 696
Released games 1,335
Announced 988
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 90% on the market, supply 215% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Idler
effort 1 / 10 · high · number growth curves and a UI

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy, Idler; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Incremental, Simulation, Management
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $8.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Relaxing, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $8.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 66,187 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $510, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $220k.

3 in 10 developers made under $510. 7 in 10 of the 223 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 988 games are announced against 545 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds50 devs · median $65k · 27 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair62 devs · median $16k · 74 announced
  3. + BaseballFair14 devs · median $7.5k · 7 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Fair89 devs · median $6.7k · 91 announced
  5. + WuxiaFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 41 announced
  6. + FarmingFair44 devs · median $4.3k · 42 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 94 announced
  8. + SubmarineFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  9. + NavalFair66 devs · median $2.2k · 88 announced
  10. + Shop KeeperFair159 devs · median $1.8k · 264 announced
  11. + HackingFair96 devs · median $1.2k · 132 announced
  12. + IncrementalFair785 devs · median $1.2k · 1,127 announced

All 275 pairs on the Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cookie Clicker older $4.99 87,916 96% 2.6M $13M (exactly $13,161,025) Orteil, DashNet
Rusty's Retirement older $6.99 13,902 96% 417k $2.9M (exactly $2,915,249) Mister Morris Games
Swords & Souls: Neverseen older $14.99 6,077 93% 182k $2.7M (exactly $2,732,827) SoulGame Studio
The Farmer Was Replaced $9.99 9,116 95% 273k $2.7M (exactly $2,732,065) Timon Herzog
Shelldiver $4.99 16,806 98% 504k $2.5M (exactly $2,515,858) Gagonfe
Dragon Cliff older $9.99 7,679 88% 230k $2.3M (exactly $2,301,396) Meta Interaction
Lessaria: Fantasy Kingdom Sim $24.90 2,938 77% 88k $2.2M (exactly $2,194,686) Rockbee Team
Bills Must Be Paid $6.99 9,928 96% 298k $2.1M (exactly $2,081,902) Rike Games
(the) Gnorp Apologue older $6.99 9,613 94% 288k $2.0M (exactly $2,015,846) Myco
Ages of Conflict: World War Simulator · EA older $6.99 8,904 96% 267k $1.9M (exactly $1,867,169) JoySpark Games
Keep on Mining! $4.99 8,300 93% 249k $1.2M (exactly $1,242,510) EagleEye Games
Sir, We Have an Orc Problem $9.99 4,123 86% 124k $1.2M (exactly $1,235,663) Mumpitz Games
Multiverse Loot Hunter $11.99 2,585 80% 78k $930k (exactly $929,824) 游戏养家工作室
Tower Wizard $2.99 8,787 96% 264k $788k (exactly $788,194) Barribob
Orb of Creation $11.99 2,167 84% 65k $779k (exactly $779,470) MarpleGames
Microcivilization $17.99 1,437 78% 43k $776k (exactly $775,549) Ondrej Homola

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.