Do I ship it?

GamesRogueliteRoguelite + Tower Defense

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Tower Defense Roguelite?

Roguelite + Tower Defense

Of 372 developers who shipped a Tower Defense Roguelite in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 514 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×3.3 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $390k, ×826 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 514 games are announced against 226 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 514 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelite + Tower Defense
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 372
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.3k → $3.0k → $2.9k → $3.0k → $3.6k → $2.0k → $1.6k (still earning) → $479 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelite + Tower Defense: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 372
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,559)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $13,323)
Top 5% $392k (exactly $392,144)
Developers, 2 yr 372
Released games 663
Announced 514
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelite
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Tower Defense
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Roguelite, Tower Defense; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Roguelike, Base Building
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 37,378 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $390k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 160 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 514 games are announced against 226 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelite with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-TimeFair11 devs · median $11k · 14 announced
  2. + ProgrammingFair24 devs · median $9.3k · 28 announced
  3. + VampiresFair60 devs · median $4.8k · 62 announced
  4. + TypingFair29 devs · median $2.4k · 34 announced
  5. + Grand StrategyFair21 devs · median $2.0k · 23 announced
  6. + IdlerFair166 devs · median $1.5k · 235 announced
  7. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.3k · 22 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair23 devs · median $1.1k · 23 announced
  9. + Score AttackFair344 devs · median $719 · 450 announced
  10. + Point & ClickFair94 devs · median $600 · 121 announced
  11. + LogicFair144 devs · median $599 · 143 announced
  12. + DwarvesPoor odds21 devs · median $74k · 24 announced

All 229 pairs on the Roguelite page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Last Spell older $24.99 13,260 91% 398k $9.9M (exactly $9,941,022) Ishtar Games
Bad North: Jotunn Edition older $14.99 12,344 93% 370k $5.6M (exactly $5,551,097) Plausible Concept, Oskar Stålberg
Kingdom: New Lands older $14.99 10,152 86% 305k $4.6M (exactly $4,565,354) Noio
The King is Watching $14.99 9,006 88% 270k $4.0M (exactly $4,049,998) Hypnohead
Orcs Must Die! Deathtrap $29.99 4,053 69% 122k $3.6M (exactly $3,646,484) Robot Entertainment
Dungeon of the ENDLESS™ older $11.99 9,419 87% 283k $3.4M (exactly $3,388,014) AMPLITUDE Studios
Ratropolis older $17.99 5,187 87% 156k $2.8M (exactly $2,799,424) Cassel Games
Tower Dominion $17.49 5,117 85% 154k $2.7M (exactly $2,684,890) Parallel 45 Games
Rogue Tower older $14.99 5,772 82% 173k $2.6M (exactly $2,595,668) Die of Death Games
Wall World older $6.99 11,353 90% 341k $2.4M (exactly $2,380,724) Alawar
Emberward $19.99 3,775 96% 113k $2.3M (exactly $2,263,868) Refic Games
Nordhold $19.99 2,875 87% 86k $1.7M (exactly $1,724,137) StunForge
Drill Core $19.99 2,130 84% 64k $1.3M (exactly $1,277,361) Hungry Couch Games
Sir, We Have an Orc Problem $9.99 4,123 86% 124k $1.2M (exactly $1,235,663) Mumpitz Games
EverSiege: Untold Ages $19.99 1,906 68% 57k $1.1M (exactly $1,143,028) Tindalos Interactive
Border Pioneer $14.99 1,675 86% 50k $753k (exactly $753,248) Yahzj Games
Monsters are Coming! $8.99 2,718 79% 82k $733k (exactly $733,045) Ludogram

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.