Do I ship it?

Games › Roguelite › Roguelite + Supernatural

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Supernatural Roguelite?

Roguelite + Supernatural

Of 70 developers who shipped a Supernatural Roguelite in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 113 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.7k, ×3.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $280k, ×596 the market median. Revenue is up 90% on the market; 113 games are announced against 45 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 90% on the market, 113 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelite + Supernatural
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 70
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.1k → $5.1k → $11k → $1.7k → $1.8k → $3.1k → $1.8k (still earning) → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelite + Supernatural: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 70
Bottom 30% $240 (exactly $240)
Median $1.7k (exactly $1,678)
Top 25% $11k (exactly $11,389)
Top 5% $283k (exactly $283,058)
Developers, 2 yr 70
Released games 137
Announced 113
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 90% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelite
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Supernatural
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Roguelite; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, Action, RPG
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 4,390 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $1.7k, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $280k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 27 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 113 games are announced against 45 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelite with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-TimeFair11 devs · median $11k · 14 announced
  2. + ProgrammingFair24 devs · median $9.3k · 28 announced
  3. + VampiresFair60 devs · median $4.8k · 62 announced
  4. + TypingFair29 devs · median $2.4k · 34 announced
  5. + Grand StrategyFair21 devs · median $2.0k · 23 announced
  6. + IdlerFair166 devs · median $1.5k · 235 announced
  7. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.3k · 22 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair23 devs · median $1.1k · 23 announced
  9. + Score AttackFair344 devs · median $719 · 450 announced
  10. + Point & ClickFair94 devs · median $600 · 121 announced
  11. + LogicFair144 devs · median $599 · 143 announced
  12. + DwarvesPoor odds21 devs · median $74k · 24 announced

All 229 pairs on the Roguelite page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Labyrinthine 2023 · $4.1M Phantom Abyss 2024 · $1.2M Rogue Lords 2021 · $1.1M The Last Case of Benedict Fox Definitive Edition 2023 · $589k Section 13 2025 · $462k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Labyrinthine older $9.99 13,779 84% 413k $4.1M (exactly $4,129,566) Valko Game Studios
Phantom Abyss older $19.99 1,962 81% 59k $1.2M (exactly $1,176,611) Team WIBY
Rogue Lords older $24.99 1,442 71% 43k $1.1M (exactly $1,081,067) Leikir Studio, Cyanide Studio
The Last Case of Benedict Fox Definitive Edition older $24.99 786 71% 24k $589k (exactly $589,264) Plot Twist
Section 13 $19.99 770 70% 23k $462k (exactly $461,769) Ocean Drive Studio, Inc.
Necrosmith older $2.99 4,885 85% 147k $438k (exactly $438,185) Alawar
Night Swarm $9.99 1,142 78% 34k $342k (exactly $342,257) Fubu Games
RIFTSTORM · EA $14.99 659 70% 20k $296k (exactly $296,352) Confiction Labs, Agate
Soulslinger: Envoy of Death $19.99 472 63% 14k $283k (exactly $283,058) Elder Games
Erannorth Reborn older $17.99 386 84% 12k $208k (exactly $208,324) Spyridon Thalassinos
THYSIASTERY $17.49 309 80% 9.3k $162k (exactly $162,132) DIRGA
Rogue Loops $14.99 259 71% 7.8k $116k (exactly $116,472) Fubu Games
Holy Shoot $12.99 267 78% 8.0k $104k (exactly $104,050) Tale Era Interactive
Exorcism Agency $12.99 222 91% 6.7k $87k (exactly $86,513) YINGGUO GAME
Malys $14.99 172 79% 5.2k $77k (exactly $77,348) Summerfall Studios
THE SPIRIT LIFT $19.99 118 94% 3.5k $71k (exactly $70,765) prettysmart games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.