Do I ship it?

GamesRogueliteRoguelite + Spaceships

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Spaceship Roguelite?

Roguelite + Spaceships

Only 14 developers shipped a Spaceship Roguelite in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Jump Space, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 13 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $11k, ×18 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $6.4M, ×10241 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 13 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 17.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 13 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelite + Spaceships
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $88k → $1.8k → $50k → $55k → $3.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelite + Spaceships: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $11k (exactly $11,242)
Top 25% $66k (exactly $65,656)
Top 5% $6.4M (exactly $6,431,183)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 35
Announced 13
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelite
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Spaceships
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Roguelite; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Roguelike, Action
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 12,927 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $11k, 1 in 4 over $65k, 1 in 20 over $6.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 4 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 13 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelite with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-TimeFair11 devs · median $11k · 14 announced
  2. + ProgrammingFair24 devs · median $9.3k · 28 announced
  3. + VampiresFair60 devs · median $4.8k · 62 announced
  4. + TypingFair29 devs · median $2.4k · 34 announced
  5. + Grand StrategyFair21 devs · median $2.0k · 23 announced
  6. + IdlerFair166 devs · median $1.5k · 235 announced
  7. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.3k · 22 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair23 devs · median $1.1k · 23 announced
  9. + Score AttackFair344 devs · median $719 · 450 announced
  10. + Point & ClickFair94 devs · median $600 · 121 announced
  11. + LogicFair144 devs · median $599 · 143 announced
  12. + DwarvesPoor odds21 devs · median $74k · 24 announced

All 229 pairs on the Roguelite page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Jump Space · EA $19.99 10,724 85% 322k $6.4M (exactly $6,431,183) Keepsake Games
Shortest Trip to Earth older $25.99 1,257 76% 38k $980k (exactly $980,083) Interactive Fate
Uncle Chop's Rocket Shop $19.99 1,108 84% 33k $664k (exactly $664,468) Beard Envy
Reality Break $24.99 683 80% 20k $512k (exactly $512,045) Element Games, LLC
For The Warp older $14.99 434 72% 13k $195k (exactly $195,170) Massive Galaxy Studios
Power of Ten older $11.99 248 79% 7.4k $89k (exactly $89,206) Pew Times Three
Dimensions: Dreadnought Architect · EA older $15.99 184 55% 5.5k $88k (exactly $88,265) Craft Theory
Godrop older $8.99 269 93% 8.1k $73k (exactly $72,549) KATOR Game Studio, ZeroCastle game Stud… (KATOR Game Studio, ZeroCastle game Studio)
Clonizer $14.99 146 82% 4.4k $66k (exactly $65,656) Juicy Plume
Hyperspace Deck Command $19.99 91 95% 2.7k $55k (exactly $54,573) Sleeper Games
Takara Cards $14.99 112 83% 3.4k $50k (exactly $50,366) Post Mortem Pixels
Fleetbreakers · EA $14.99 25 96% 750 $11k (exactly $11,242) Last Keep
Seven Suns of Orion $4.99 22 100% 660 $3.3k (exactly $3,293) FerroFerrous
Lonely tiny spaceship $3.99 12 83% 360 $1.4k (exactly $1,436) Lonely bro
Fire Everything! $4.99 4 100% 120 $599 (exactly $599) MindWroughtGames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.